Susan Shelley’s critique of Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House” misinterprets his framework. Lichtman, with a proven record, defined the criteria, so claiming he’s “wrong” is misguided.
For Key 3 (no serious contest for the incumbent), Shelley argues the Democratic primary was contested because Kamala Harris took over after Biden stepped down. But the party overwhelmingly rallied behind her, which aligns with Lichtman’s definition.
On Key 8 (civil unrest), Shelley points to protests and social tensions, but Lichtman defines unrest as sustained instability during the election. While unrest exists, it doesn’t meet that threshold.
Finally, Key 13 (the challenger is uncharismatic): Trump excites his base, but Lichtman’s definition requires broad appeal, which Trump lacks. Harris, however, may fit the bill.
Shelley’s deviations from Lichtman’s definitions weaken her critique. Therefore, Harris is poised to become the first woman of mixed race to shatter the ultimate glass ceiling in American politics.
Elaine Neff, Mission Hills
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