No MLS team has ever overturned a 3-0 first-leg deficit in CONCACAF competition.
This is less a statement about the quality of MLS clubs than the stacked deck teams around the world face after lopsided defeats in the opening game of a two-leg series.
By snatching a sizable lead against the Columbus Crew last week at BMO Stadium, the Los Angeles Football Club is a big favorite to reach the Champions Cup quarterfinals in April.
LAFC can clinch that berth on Tuesday night at Lower.com Field in Columbus, Ohio.
If LAFC loses by fewer than three goals, it moves on. If it loses by three but scores, it would advance. If the visitors are down 3-0 at the end of 90 minutes, the series will be decided during 30 minutes of extra time or a penalty kick shootout.
“If,” of course, implies that despite LAFC’s significant advantage nothing is guaranteed against the Crew, which became the fourth MLS club to trail 3-0 following a CONCACAF first-leg away match.
“For sure we’re going to push for everything,” Columbus head coach Wilfried Nancy said in the wake of last week’s outcome. “This is the way we are. This is the way we do things. After that, we’ll see.”
Comebacks happen, though eliminating LAFC would require a special effort from Nancy’s club, which had won three straight against the Black & Gold, taking the 2023 MLS Cup final and the 2024 Leagues Cup final in the process.
How special?
During the home-and-away aggregate series in the MLS Cup playoffs from 2003-2018, each of the five teams with a three-goal advantage in the first leg advanced.
Around the world, that’s not always been the case.
In 2022, the New England Revolution took a 3-nil edge in the first leg of a CONCACAF Champions League Round of 16 series against Liga MX club Pumas, only to lose by the same score in Mexico and ultimately fall on PKs. It was the second time in the competition’s history that a team rallied like that to win a two-leg series.
No stranger to mad-dash comebacks of its own, LAFC overcame a 2-0 Champions League hole in 2020 to topple Mexico’s Club León, 3-0.
UEFA Champions League competition delivered rare second-leg comebacks in recent years.
Paris Saint-Germain took a 4-0 lead on Barcelona in 2017 only to fall 6-1 in the return match.
In 2018, Barcelona led Roma 4-1 before losing 3-0 and bowing out on the away-goal tiebreaker.
The next year, Barcelona was again involved in a topsy-turvy encounter, winning 3-0 at home over Liverpool before a 4-0 defeat in England.
“There’s still a lot of work to be done,” LAFC head coach Steve Cherundolo said.
LAFC can help itself by doing more than simply maintaining a lead. Another victory could go a long way in determining seeding for the quarterfinal round against Inter Miami or Jamaica’s Cavalier FC. Miami defeated Cavalier, 2-0, last week. They reunite in Kingston on Thursday.
“The way this competition works, as far as home-field advantage in the next round, if you make it to the next round, it’s important to get as many results as you can to set yourself up,” Cherundolo said. “So this is a game we’re going to Columbus to try to win.”
For seeding purposes, victories in the Round of 16 are valued at three points. Ties, one. If teams are level on points, the tiebreakers are as follows: best goal difference; most goals scored; most away goals scored; most wins; most away wins; fair play considerations; highest club ranking after the round is completed; a draw by CONCACAF.
LAFC AT COLUMBUS CREW
When: Tuesday, 5:30 p.m. PT
Where: Lower.com Field, Columbus, Ohio
TV: FS2