With Governor Gavin Newsom’s final term in its final years, attention will soon turn to the race to replace him.
Currently, 10 candidates – seven Democrats and three Republicans – have declared their candidacy, but none have yet to separate themselves from the crowded field.
To that end, the one potential candidate who could, with relative ease, jump into pole position ahead of next June’s primary, is former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Since her loss last November, rumors have swirled over the former VP’s potential interest in seeking the governorship, although as of yet, she has not officially declared. Were she to enter the race however, it would likely be a lay-up.
Indeed, Harris has already won three statewide elections, having served for a combined 10 years as the state’s attorney general and then U.S. senator. And, according to CNN, “several major candidates made clear…that they would likely step aside if she got in.”
These candidates’ fears of running against Harris are well-founded. A UC Berkeley poll taken immediately after the 2024 presidential election showed that nearly one-half (46%) of California voters said they’d be likely to support her.
Moreover, even that 46% underrepresents Harris’ support. Among Democrats, who outnumber Republicans by roughly 2-1 in the state, more than 7-in-10 (72%) would be likely to back Harris.
When the same poll tested support for 13 other candidates – excluding Harris – it found that a majority (52%) of Californians were undecided, underscoring their relative lack of support compared to the former Vice President.
Of course, Harris’ strength this far out from an election is almost certainly due to her significantly higher name recognition compared to other candidates.
Only former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter – who has declared – would be remotely comparable, but Porter has already clarified that Harris’ entrance would “clear the field.”
Thus, if Harris would almost certainly have an inside track at the governorship, the remaining questions are, will she enter the race, and if so, what does that mean for her 2028 aspirations?
To be sure, there are legitimate pros and cons for Harris if she decides to follow the path of former President Richard Nixon who, after his loss in the 1960 presidential election, ran for California governor.
Perhaps the biggest benefits are that she would remain in the public eye, and serving as governor would allow Harris to address a top criticism of her during the 2024 campaign, her lack of executive experience.
It is not unreasonable to think that a successful 1-2 years as governor could serve as a rebuttal to that criticism ahead of 2028.
Similarly, serving as governor would give Harris the opportunity to stake out her own policy platform after being routinely criticized for lacking a well-defined agenda during the presidential campaign.
The potential benefits notwithstanding, it would be incredibly challenging for Harris to run for governor, win, and then run for president in 2028.
For starters, the Harris-Nixon analogy is not entirely apples to apples.
While Nixon was also a former vice president who lost his first race for the nation’s highest job, Nixon ran against a very popular incumbent, Pat Brown. Nixon also lost, whereas Harris would likely win.
Were Harris to run for governor and win, she would be sworn into office in January 2027. That would leave her an incredibly small window before having to begin her presidential campaign.
It is true that in 2024, Harris proved that a presidential campaign can be organized and run in an incredibly short amount of time. However, after being thrust atop the Democratic ticket in an unprecedented way, it is understandable if Harris balked at yet another compressed timeframe to build a national campaign.
At this point, even Harris’ closest aides are unsure of the direction she will take.
As CNN has reported, following conversations with over a dozen current and former Harris advisors, “the only consensus is that she likely can’t do both” – running for governor and trying again for the White House.
Further, even if Harris were able to do both, it is not guaranteed that serving as Governor of California would be the political boost many assume.
The next governor, no matter who it is, will have a very full plate from day one.
California has genuine problems – addressing the state’s bloated budget, leading the recovery from the devastating fires near Los Angeles, getting the city ready to host the Olympics, and more – all of which will demand the full attention of the governor.
Were Harris to win the governorship and then immediately begin looking toward Washington, she opens herself up to attacks that she is abandoning the state or simply using it as a stepping stone.
Serving as governor of California — a state considered far to the left of the nation —would fail to assuage concerns that Harris is too far-left for the Oval Office.
Immediately before the 2024 election, New York Times polling found that a plurality (44%) of voters felt that Harris was “too liberal or progressive.”
Ultimately, it is too early to assume, with any degree of confidence or precision, what the former vice president will do. Few could fault her for deciding to lead the nation’s biggest state, with the fifth biggest economy in the world.
And, as President Trump can attest to, in today’s age, you can never say “never” to a political comeback. Having been written off following his first term, and even more so after the January 6th riots, Trump showed just how to pull off such a comeback.
And yet, having served as vice president, then presidential nominee, it would be entirely understandable if Harris believes she can do both.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.