ARCADIA — The Santa Anita Derby on Saturday will feature one of the biggest showdowns in the race’s recent history but also one of the smallest fields in its 90 years.
The first meeting of Journalism, winner of back-to-back stakes, and Citizen Bull, winner of three in a row and the 2-year-old championship for 2024, is likely to determine the favorite for the May 3 Kentucky Derby.
The fact the $500,000, Grade I race over 1 1/8 miles drew only five entrants Monday is significant because it could affect whether Barnes or Baeza earns enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
Under a new rule this season, Kentucky Derby qualifying races with only five starters award three-quarters of their scheduled points (and races with four or fewer award only half the points). The Santa Anita race, intended to be worth 100, 50, 25, 15 and 10 to top finishers, now is worth 75, 37 1/2, 18 1/4, 11 1/4 and 7 ½ (and that would be 50, 25, 12 ½, 7 ½ and 5 if any horse is scratched).
It typically takes 40 or more points to get into the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. With the original points schedule, Barnes, who has earned 18 ¾ so far, could climb over 40 by finishing third or better Saturday, and Baeza, who has no points yet, could get over 40 by finishing second or better; but now Barnes must finish at least second and Baeza must win.
“That would hurt our chances (of making the Kentucky Derby),” John Shirreffs, trainer of Baeza, acknowledged Monday morning as the possibility of a five-horse field loomed.
But Shirreffs refused to be downcast.
“The exciting thing is you’re in the Santa Anita Derby with a nice horse, so you’re hoping to win the race, right? The Kentucky Derby is somewhere in the future,” said Shirreffs, who won the Santa Anita Derby with Tiago in 2007 and Gormley in 2017 and the Kentucky Derby with Giacomo in 2005.
Shirreffs entered the maiden Westwood as well as one-time winner Baeza to get the field to five.
Bob Baffert, the nine-time Santa Anita Derby winner and six-time Kentucky Derby winner, trains Barnes as well as Citizen Bull. The latter is securely in the Kentucky Derby field with 60 points for winning the American Pharoah Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Feb. 1.
Michael McCarthy trains Journalism. That colt has a safe 47.5 points after winning the Los Alamitos Futurity in December and the San Felipe Stakes on March 1, the latter also a five-horse race that awarded reduced points.
The favorites drew the inside post positions for the Santa Anita Derby. Here’s the lineup in starting-gate order: Journalism, jockey Umberto Rispoli; Citizen Bull, Martin Garcia; Westwood, Tiago Pereira; Barnes, Juan Hernandez, and Baeza, Hector Berrios.
The five horses would match the fewest starters in a Santa Anita Derby. It had that few in 2006 (when Brother Derek won) and 1946 (Knockdown).
The Derby is the 10th race on a 12-race card starting at noon. Sunshine and a high of 73 degrees is forecast Saturday in Arcadia.