The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could stay “near-average” through September for the U.S., according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The forecast does not assess October through the end of November. October is often an active storm month.
The analysis projects approximately 12 named storms through September. According to the National Hurricane Center, the average season between 1991 and 2020 had 10 storms through September, and 14 total.
The ECMRW, which produces weather predictions to member states and the European Union’s Space program, predicted five hurricanes through September. That’s average, according to the NHC.
Colorado State University Atlantic hurricane specialist Phil Klotzbach wrote on X that the forecast is probably influenced by two factors: neither La Niña nor El Niño will likely be at play. La Niña conditions tend to aid hurricane formation, while El Niño conditions tend to inhibit storms with wind shear.
Secondly, sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic where hurricanes brew are forecast to be near normal. That’s in contrast to 2023 and 2024, which set records for hot water. Warm waters fuel hurricanes.