One of the more specious arguments in the early weeks of the second presidency of Donald Trump was the question of whether or not he had a mandate to do whatever he wanted.
Supporters of the president believed that because he overcame a lot to win decisively, and had with him a Republican-held Congress, he effectively had a mandate.
Opponents of the president fixated on the fact that he didn’t quite get 50% of the popular vote and that his margin of victory wasn’t impressive by historical measures.
Of course, Trump is not a king, but a president in a system with divided responsibilities, divided powers and constitutional constraints. Talk of a mandate only comes across as reasonable if it’s talked about in the sense of “political capital.”
Which is true — Trump assumed office with a great deal of political capital. Unburdened by the prospect of chasing another term, he made quick work of pushing significant changes across a host of issues.
A flurry of executive orders, declarations and controversial cabinet selections were just the start. Early polling showed he had the support of a majority of Americans. Data from polling aggregator RealClearPolitics shows that there was as high as an 8.5% difference in his favorability and unfavorability ratings.
But that has gradually been coming down, with the RealClearPolitics average putting his level of support as of Feb. 21 at 49.1% with 47.8% viewing his presidency unfavorably.
No doubt part of this is just the natural wearing off of the honeymoon period new presidents get as Americans give them the benefit of the doubt before paying attention to what’s actually happening.
But there are also reasons to suspect Trump has miscalculated politically on a number of fronts. While he has aggressively sought to advance tariffs as either a tool for negotiations or an end in themselves, Americans have not been convinced that they are in their best interests.
Polling in January from Quinnipiac University found that just 42% thought tariffs would help the economy, while more recent polling from the Washington Post found that 69% of Americans think tariffs will make goods more expensive.
The average American, it turns out, has more economic sense than the president when it comes to trade. Tariffs, after all, are taxes paid by importers. Imposing taxes on goods from abroad only means that businesses will pass along the costs of the tariffs to customers. The average American understands this, but Trump doesn’t.
The more he pushes tariffs, which will raise prices, the more he will annoy Americans who elected him in part because they thought he could do a better job of handling the economy. Years of harsh inflation and the higher prices seen by everyone everywhere hurt. Making that worse with tariffs is obviously the wrong thing to do.
Elsewhere, Trump took heat for his selection of polarizing figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard to join his cabinet. Setting aside their individual merits and granting that they may be right on some issues, it was a risky play for Trump to select such people. But he did it and is probably in part paying the price for it.
Trump’s declaration that the United States would take over Gaza likely did him no favors. Polling from CNN indicates 58% of Americans called it a bad idea, with a plurality of Republicans staying neutral on it. Negotiating ploy or not, it sounded nuts to most Americans because it is an absurd idea.
These sorts of things will continue to pile up. As will backlash and sour feelings, most likely, to the outsized involvement of Elon Musk.
Trump risks overplaying his hand because he thought he had a mandate to do whatever he wanted. You know who also thought that? Joe Biden, who let his win get to his head and steered him away from being the moderate, normal Democrat people expected to trying (and failing) to be the next Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
Time will tell if Trump can catch himself.