The Ducks coasted into the break by winning six of seven games and demonstrating a palpable confidence resulting from one of their best stretches yet under second-year coach Greg Cronin.
While there may be not a clear signal that recent gains will prove sustainable, the Ducks have scored more and done almost all their damage at even strength, all without losing any luster from their formidable goaltending tandem of Lukáš Dostál and John Gibson.
With the 4 Nations Face-Off break’s conclusion set to send the Ducks into a 28-game stretch run that could literally go either way – they entered the impasse precisely .500 in points percentage – the answers to these four inquiries might determine the outcome of their 2024-25 campaign.
Can this team create offense consistently?
While the Ducks remained the lowest-scoring team in the NHL overall on a per-game basis and in terms of total goals, they’ve climbed to 23rd of 32 teams since Christmas. During their 6-1-0 surge, the Ducks’ scoring average placed eighth in the NHL, just behind high-voltage attacks like Edmonton and Tampa Bay.
Fluid breakouts and sustained pressure have been more common occurrences, though consistency could still be an issue, as could finishing. The Ducks’ top three performances so far in terms of expected goals (per Natural Stat Trick) were all losses, and of their seven highest XG showings, none surpassed three actual goals on the scoreboard.
When the Ducks hit that mark, it’s something of a magic number. They’re 21-0-2 when scoring three or more times (15 regulation wins) and 14-0-0 with four goals or more (nine regulation wins).
Will the power play ever click?
The power play will always be part and parcel to any offensive discussion and it’s particularly pertinent for the Ducks, who only have the New York Islanders to look down upon in terms of man-advantage efficiency this season (12.1% for the Ducks, 11.5% for the Isles).
That hasn’t varied significantly, as the Ducks have nine power-play goals in their last 90 opportunities and just six tallies in their past 65 chances. They have owned the NHL’s worst conversion rate dating to Nov. 19 and even during their upticks in performance, both offensively and overall, the power play has ranged from peckish to outright famished.
Even as their 6-1-0 record gave them the NHL’s second-best points percentage during a short period, they were cashing in only 5.3% of the time with the extra man. The Kings and Columbus Blue Jackets combined to go 0 for 26 in that span to keep the Ducks out of last place. For both their personnel and first-year assistant coach Rich Clune, encouraging moments have been few and far between. In a two-month stretch, they also gave up all four of their shorthanded goals against this season, one of the league’s worst marks during that time. Individual players have provided intermittent bright spots, but the sum of their efforts has been dreadfully underwhelming.
Can they firm up their mushy middle?
While Trevor Zegras was injured, veteran Alex Killorn remarked that his absence made an impact, something the numbers then bore out with a 15.7% figure with Zegras dipping to 8.6% without him. But since his Jan. 21 return, the Ducks have improved only marginally, to 9.5%. That limited impact from the Ducks’ multitude of centers – some of whom, like Zegras and rookie Cutter Gauthier, have found themselves on the flank frequently as a result of the surplus – has not just been limited to a specific situation either.
Zegras, Killorn, Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish have all charted courses for their production to stay level at best. Killorn and Carlsson were on pace for significant dips, while McTavish’s torrid stretch before this pause only accelerated his scoring pace to where it would reach 2023-24’s levels, but in more games played.
Ryan Strome has been the only Ducks pivot to noticeably raise his level of play and production alike, a troubling sign given that Strome, like Killorn, is in his mid-30s, while Carlsson, McTavish and Zegras all have peers in the NCAA.
Will they be buyers, sellers or neither at the trade deadline?
Strome was the most vocal Duck but hardly the only one to speak of the dressing room’s peaks and valleys in morale as the Ducks dealt veterans in recent seasons. Earlier this year, they welcomed Jacob Trouba via trade with open arms but bid farewell emotionally to Cam Fowler about a week later. That experiential ledger was back in the black when veteran winger Frank Vatrano re-signed for three seasons, with team-friendly terms on his contract extension no less.
Otherwise, the Ducks have retained a revolving-door feel with veterans, moving out Adam Henrique and Ilya Lyubushkin at the last trade deadline and replacing them in the offseason with Robby Fabbri and Brian Dumoulin, two veterans who were also entering the final years of their respective contracts. Their contract status and the depth chart behind them puts their futures on Katella Avenue in question. Gibson and Zegras have seen the murmurs resume, with Gibson-related chatter increasing in volume in recent weeks.
While selling may be reasonable, especially if they continue to hover around a playoff-precluding .500 points percentage, simply moving present-day pieces for futures could send a negative message to the rest of the roster. Instead, Verbeek could also explore opportunities to add to the young core of a franchise with cap space to spare this season and next.