Democrats are rightly reeling after President Joe Biden’s first debate performance, which reinforced – and indeed magnified – existing concerns about his age and mental fitness.
Even after a week of preparation at Camp David, Biden “seemed a little disoriented” according to longtime Democratic strategist David Axelrod, who added that by the time Biden finally got it together, the “panic had set in.”
Ultimately, last night’s debate made clear that Democrats simply cannot defeat Donald Trump with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.
It isn’t that the substance of Biden’s answers were wildly off-kilter, but rather his delivery, through a raspy voice and inability to speak clearly did absolutely nothing to inspire confidence in his ability to serve another four years in the most demanding job in the world.
To that end, Democrats must finally discuss the need for Biden to step aside ahead of the convention. Doing so would allow the party to nominate a fresh face and proven fighter who can go toe to toe with Trump, and forcefully make Democrats’ case.
Of course, the first candidate to replace Biden would be Vice President Kamala Harris. Her experience in office and within the campaign, as well as her ability to step into the role as nominee with minimal issues such as ballot access, would seemingly make her a natural successor.
That being said, not only is Harris as unpopular as Biden – her average approval sits at 39%, just under Biden’s 40% – but it is an open question as to whether or not she could even win. Were she to replace Biden ahead of the final debate in September, she would be unlikely to make a strong case for herself or her party.
Given the issues surrounding Harris’ viability, Democrats may have to consider another option. The one name that comes to mind is California Governor Gavin Newsom.
This would not be the first time Newsom’s name has been floated as a “break the glass in case of emergency” candidate, despite his repeated and emphatic denials that he had a 2024 campaign in mind.
And yet, given Biden’s obvious struggles to make his own case for another four years, Newsom very well have to find a way around his proclamation to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis that “neither of us will be the nominee for our party in 2024.”
Were Biden to step aside and throw his support behind the California Governor over Harris, the most obvious obstacle would be considerable blowback from a Democratic Party obsessed with identity politics.
However, with less than five months to go until Americans head to the ballot box, and particularly after last night’s disastrous performance from Biden, Newsom’s strengths should significantly outweigh any concerns.
This is no longer an out of the box solution to the alarming problem Democrats are now facing. According to the political betting site PredictIt, during the debate, Newsom’s chances of securing his party’s nomination jumped 19-points, while Biden’s fell a nearly equal 20-points.
As I’ve written in these pages, Newsom has shown himself able – and willing – to spar with prominent Republicans, as he did with DeSantis in November, aggressively defending Biden, and making a particularly compelling and forward-looking case for the Democratic Party’s agenda.
In that debate – a much more hostile environment than Biden faced on Thursday – Newsom showed that he was unafraid to take DeSantis – and the entire GOP – to task for their positions on hot-button issues such as abortion, and most importantly, was a competent and forceful voice for Democrats’ agenda.
The governor has also shown himself to be adept at fundraising for Democrats’ agenda, having launched a multi-state effort earlier this year to push back on GOP anti-abortion policies, an issue Harris has been the administration’s mouthpiece for.
Newsom has also punched above his weight for a governor, showing his foreign policy aptitude in meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. And his moderate views on issues such as the Israel-Hamas war would be refreshing to many swing voters wary of the increasingly extreme progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
It is true that Newsom’s record as Governor of a deep-blue state may be slightly further to the left than many moderates may desire, but he has not been pulled so far to the left whereas he couldn’t believably move to the center in a national election.
Moreover, with his national recognition and political gravitas, Newsom is able to do what Democrats desperately need and what Biden showed himself unable to do: make the case for why Americans are better off with a Democratic White House than they would be under a second Trump term.
Related Articles
Is any top-ranking California Democrat actually concerned with governing California?
Newsom: Conservatives are just like Hitler
Expect more tax increases and fewer results from Los Angeles County
Newsom uses ‘velvet glove’ to attack democracy
The presidential debate: We’re the suckers and losers
To be clear, this is not to say that Biden stepping aside in favor of Newsom would be smooth. As mentioned earlier, sidestepping VP Harris would infuriate many Democrats, particularly Black voters, which the party needs if they want to keep the White House, regardless of who headlines the ticket.
Further, as governor of California, Newsom has presided over a surging homelessness crisis, as well as questionable management of the world’s fifth largest economy, which is being increasingly strained by the state’s far-left legislature.
And yet, Newsom did manage to survive a recall vote in 2021, suggesting that despite the public opprobrium directed at the governor, he is able to promote himself and his party in a way that Biden simply cannot anymore.
As someone who voted for the president and has rooted for his administration to succeed, it is both disappointing and disconcerting to have to write this. However, in the wake of last night’s debate, the Democratic Party would be doing itself – and the country – a terrible disservice if we do not strongly consider whether or not Joe Biden is the right candidate to take on Donald Trump a second time.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.