SERIES SCHEDULE (all times PT)
Game 1: Padres at Dodgers, Saturday, 5:38 p.m., FS1
Game 2: Padres at Dodgers, Sunday, 5:03 p.m., FS1
Game 3: Dodgers at Padres, Tuesday, TBA
x-Game 4: Dodgers at Padres, Wednesday, TBA
x-Game 5: Padres at Dodgers, Friday, TBA
x- if necessary
Season series: The Padres won, 8-5.
TALE OF THE TAPE (OFFENSE)
Padres (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
93-69 (2nd) … Record … 98-64 (1st in NL West)
760 (6th) … Runs scored … 842 (2nd)
.263 (T-1st) … Batting avg. … .258 (3rd)
.324 (5th) … OBP … .335 (second)
.420 (4th) … Slugging pct. … .446 (1st)
.744 (4th) … OPS … .781 (1st)
190 (6th) … Home runs … 233 (1st)
120 (8th) … Stolen bases … 136 (6th)
TALE OF THE TAPE (pitching)
Padres (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
3.86 (12th) … Team ERA … 3.90 (6th)
3.91 (5th) … Starters ERA … 4.23 (10th)
3.78 (5th) … Bullpen ERA … 3.53 (3rd)
1.22 (6th) … WHIP … 1.23 (3rd)
9.09 (4th) … Ks per 9 inns … 8.65 (6th)
PROJECTED LINEUPS
PADRES: DH Luis Arraez (.314/.346/.398, 4 HRs, 46 RBIs, 9 stolen bases with Marlins and Padres), RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (.276/.340/.492, 21 HRs, 49 RBIs, 11 SBs), LF Jurickson Profar (.280/.380/.459, 24 HRs, 85 RBIs, 10 SBs), 3B Manny Machado (.275/.325/.472, 29 HRs, 105 RBIs, 11 SBs), CF Jackson Merrill (.292/.326/.500, 24 HRs, 90 RBIs, 16 SBs), SS Xander Bogaerts (.264/.307/.381, 11 HRs, 44 RBIs, 13 SBs), 2B Jake Cronenworth (.241/.324/.390, 17 HRs, 83 RBIs), 1B Donovan Solano (.286/.343/.417, 8 HRs, 35 RBIs), C Kyle Higashioka (.220/.263/.476, 17 HRs, 45 RBIs)
DODGERS: DH Shohei Ohtani (.310/.390/.646, 54 HRs, 130 RBIs, 134 runs scored, 59 SBs), RF Mookie Betts (.289/.372/.491, 19 HRs, 75 RBIs, 75 runs scored, 16 SBs), 1B Freddie Freeman (.282/.378/.476, 22 HRs, 81 runs scored, 89 RBIs), LF Teoscar Hernandez (.272/.339/.501, 33 HRs, 99 RBIs, 84 runs scored, 12 SBs), 3B Max Muncy (.232/.358/.494, 15 HRs, 48 RBIs), C Will Smith (.248/.327/.433, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs), CF Tommy Edman (.237/.294/.417, 6 HRs, 20 RBIs), SS Miguel Rojas (.283/.337/.410, 6 HRs, 36 RBIs, 8 SBs), 2B Gavin Lux (.251/.320/.383, 10 HRs, 50 RBIs)
Ohtani has done a lot in his seven-year major-league career – two-way star, two-time (about to be three-time) MVP, the first 50-50 man. But he hasn’t done this. Baseball’s biggest star finally gets to perform on baseball’s biggest stage. The Dodgers are convinced his scorching finish to the regular season (he hit .508 with seven home runs over the final 14 games) is a sign that he is ready to perform in the postseason.
The Padres will likely tread cautiously around Ohtani, putting pressure on the lineup behind him to be more threatening than the combined 1 for 21 that Betts and Freeman put up in last year’s NLDS flop. Freeman might not even be in the starting lineup due to a sprained ankle. Smith, Teoscar Hernandez and Muncy will have to pick up the slack. Smith has driven in more postseason runs (21) than any other Dodger over the past five postseasons. Muncy has a .900 OPS in his past 20 postseason games.
The Padres, meanwhile, tried it with their own trio of stars last season – Machado, Tatis and Juan Soto – but had their best offensive season since moving into Petco Park 20 years ago with a less star-centric approach this year. They put the ball in play. No team struck out fewer times after the All-Star break (when the Padres had the best record in baseball) and they tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the highest team average in baseball for the season. They hit in the clutch. Only the Dodgers had a higher batting average and OPS in “Late and Close” situations (a statistical designation). And their lineup is deep. After 10 seasons with four different teams – marking him as “irrelevant” in Smith’s estimation in April (comments for which he apologized) – Profar emerged stunningly as an All-Star this season. Arraez arrived from Miami and won another batting title. Merrill would be a runaway winner of the NL Rookie of the Year award in any year without Pittsburgh pitcher Paul Skenes also on the scene.
“It’s just a different year, different team, different vibe,” Machado said. EDGE: EVEN
STARTING PITCHERS
PADRES: RH Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.91 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Michael King (13-9, 2.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.4 Ks per 9 IP), LH Martin Perez (5-6, 4.53 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7.1 Ks per 9 IP with Pirates and Padres)
DODGERS: RH Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10.8 Ks per 9 IP with Tigers and Dodgers), RH Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 7.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Landon Knack (3-5, 3.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.0 Ks per 9 IP)
The Dodgers’ starting pitching sank them in the 2023 NLDS sweep by the Diamondbacks. The trio of Clayton Kershaw (with a shoulder in need of surgical repair), rookie Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combined to record 14 outs while allowing 13 runs in the three games. The Dodgers went out and spent big on starting pitching last winter, acquiring Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (and James Paxton), clapping their hands together and figuring that wouldn’t happen again.
But here they are in another postseason with a starting rotation filled with question marks. Glasnow is a spectator. Yamamoto has pitched into the fifth inning just once since early June (and has never pitched in an MLB postseason game). Flaherty’s fastball velocity has been down in each of his past two starts. Buehler has … not been Buehler since returning from his second elbow surgery. Knack is a rookie who will probably only be used in a “bulk” role if the Dodgers resort to a bullpen game.
The advantage clearly belongs to the Padres here – even with Joe Musgrove out of the mix with an elbow injury. The Dodgers hit .205 in Cease’s two starts against them this season. In his past six starts against the Dodgers (including Game 2 of the 2022 NLDS), Darvish has a 2.36 ERA with 24 hits allowed and 29 strikeouts in 34⅓ innings. King was spectacular in the Wild Card Series opener. In his past two starts against the Dodgers, they managed just one unearned run on five hits while striking out 14 times in 12 innings. EDGE: PADRES
PROJECTED BULLPEN
PADRES: RH Robert Suarez (9-3, 36 saves, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Jason Adam (7-2, 4 saves, 1.95 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per 9 IP with Rays and Padres), LH Tanner Scott (9-6, 22 saves, 1.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.5 Ks per 9 IP with Marlins and Padres), RH Jeremiah Estrada (6-3, 1 save, 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 13.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Adrian Morejon (3-2, 2 saves, 2.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.0 Ks per 9 IP), RH Bryan Hoeing (2-3, 2.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.2 Ks per 9 IP with Marlins and Padres), LH Yuki Matsui (4-2, 3.73 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Wandy Peralta (3-2, 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5.2 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: RH Michael Kopech (6-8, 15 saves, 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.7 Ks per 9 IP with White Sox and Dodgers), RH Evan Phillips (5-1, 18 saves, 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.4 Ks per 9 IP), RH Blake Treinen (7-3, 1 save, 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Joe Kelly (1-1, 4.78 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Ryan Brasier (1-0, 3.54 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 8.0 Ks per 9 IP), LH Alex Vesia (5-4, 5 saves, 1.76 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Daniel Hudson (6-2, 10 saves, 3.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.0 Ks per 9 IP), LH Anthony Banda (3-2, 2 saves, 3.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.1 Ks per 9 IP), RH Brent Honeywell Jr. (1-1, 1 save, 2.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 4.3 Ks per 9 IP)
Padres general manager A.J. Preller has been praised for his trade deadline maneuvers, which turned the team’s bullpen into a postseason monster. Closer Suarez has probably been the weakest link in that group. He blew three of his last eight save chances in the regular season and had an 8.00 ERA in his last nine appearances. But he allowed just one hit in closing out both of the Padres’ wins in the WC Series. Scott and Adam have been lights out – though the Dodgers got to Scott in their division-clinching victory over the Padres – and the Padres have lost just once since early June when a starting pitcher left the game with a lead.
The struggles of their starting pitchers made it a long season for Dodgers relievers – they covered 648 innings (the fifth-highest total in MLB) – and they were not always reliable. Things will narrow down in the postseason. No more Yohan Ramirez, Michael Petersen, Nabil Crismatt or Gus Varland – yes, they all pitched for the Dodgers this past season. It will be Hudson, Vesia, Treinen, Phillips and Kopech, their own trade-deadline acquisition, pitching the important innings in this series. EDGE: PADRES
BENCH
PADRES: C Elias Diaz (.265/.313/.382, 6 HRs, 39 RBIs with Rockies and Padres), IF Nick Ahmed (.229/.267/.295, 2 HRs, 17 RBIs with Giants, Dodgers and Padres), IF Tyler Wade (.217/.285/.239, 0 HRs, 8 RBIs), OF David Peralta (.267/.335/.415, 8 HRs, 28 RBIs), OF Brandon Lockridge (.167/.167/.417, 1 HR, 1 RBI)
DODGERS: IF-OF Chris Taylor (.202/.298/.300, 4 HRs, 23 RBIs, 5 SBs), C Austin Barnes (.264/.331/.307, 1 HR, 11 RBIs), IF-OF Kiké Hernandez (.229/.281/.373, 12 HRs, 42 RBIs), OF Andy Pages (.248/.305/.407, 13 HRs, 46 RBIs)
The Padres will not ask much of their bench in this series. The Dodgers, on the other hand, could deploy Taylor, Hernandez and Pages frequently as pinch-hitters. Taylor and Hernandez are familiar with the postseason stage and have come through in big moments for the Dodgers in past Octobers. Both had disappointing seasons but finished on upswings. Taylor hit .356 (16 for 45) over his last 20 games. Hernandez hit .308 (16 for 52) in September and could find himself in the starting lineup (at first or third base) if Freeman’s ankle prevents him from being in the starting lineup. EDGE: DODGERS
MANAGERS
PADRES: Mike Shildt, first season with Padres, fifth season overall (345-268, .563, with St. Louis Cardinals and Padres), 4th postseason (6-9, .400 with Cardinals and Padres)
DODGERS: Dave Roberts, ninth season (851-505, .627), ninth postseason (45-39, .536)
Like a house-flipper on HGTV, Shildt has performed an impressive makeover, gutting the toxic culture in previous Padres clubhouses and putting it on more grounded footings. He certainly didn’t have to sell his team on the need to beat the Dodgers. As Roberts acknowledged recently, the Padres have usually brought more intensity to the SoCal matchups than the more business-like Dodgers did. That has given the Padres an advantage at times (like the 2022 NLDS) – but should be less of a factor this series. The Padres have gotten their attention.
“I see some more hunger. I see some more edge. I like that,” Roberts said this week. “Not to say that guys weren’t prepared or trying or cared (in the past). But there’s a different level of intensity and that kind of sour taste that you have when you make an early exit from the postseason – our guys are tired of it.”
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Some would blame Roberts for failing to ignite that spark in his team over the past two seasons – but Roberts seems to get criticized for everything while getting less credit than the Dodgers’ checkbook for the annual 100-win seasons and division titles. He won’t get any more credit for navigating all of this season’s injuries and still winning 98 games either. October is the only measuring stick that matters and Roberts has fallen short repeatedly in that regard. Some of it is his faulty decision-making (the 2019 NLDS is the prime example). Some of it is the front office’s self-defeating tendency to overthink things every postseason (see the 2021 postseason). But at least these are not unfamiliar waters for Roberts. EDGE: DODGERS
SERIES PREDICTION
For the sixth time in the past eight Octobers, the first- and second-place teams from the National League West will meet in the postseason. The Dodgers won the first four of those matchups (including 2021 when they were the second-place team). The underdogs flipped the script the past two years.
The Dodgers certainly shouldn’t be ambushed this time. The Padres were the best team in baseball since the All-Star break – 45-20 including their two Wild Card Series wins — and dominated the Dodgers head-to-head (until September). They might even be the better team in this matchup. Their pitching overall is better. Their lineup is at least comparable. And, they might be built better for October. “I think the way we play, how our team is set up, is good for that type of baseball,” Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth said.
The margins are thin enough in October, though, and one key moment could flip this series either way. Isn’t it time for one of those moments to go the Dodgers’ way? PREDICTION: DODGERS IN FIVE