“Swift swings” takes a quick peek at one economic trend.
The number: California shoppers seem wary of the upcoming White House switch, as one measurement of consumer confidence has dropped 11% since Donald Trump won another presidential term.
The source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for December, tracking the nation and eight states.
The curve
Confidence in the very Democratic-leaning state dipped 1% in December after an 10% dive in November following Republican Trump’s victory. The index had been at a 14-month-high in pre-election October, but now sits only 8% above its average score since 2007.
Looking inside the index, we see Californians seem OK with the current economy. The “present situation” index is up 0.4% in two months to 26% above average.
It’s the Golden State’s business future that’s problematic. The “expectations” index is down 20% in two months to 5% below average.
Details
Nationally, there’s less skepticism, but U.S. confidence is off 4% in two months to 14% above average.
And it’s not just a red-vs.-blue pattern. Ponder the three other states that have post-election angst, by this polling.
Ohio confidence dropped 15% dip in two months to 1% above average. And Michigan is down 1% to 15% above average. Both supported Trump.
- REAL ESTATE NEWSLETTER: Get our free ‘Home Stretch’ by email. SUBSCRIBE HERE!
But New York, which Trump lost, has 5% lower confidence in two months to 28% above average.
The spin
Not every consumer is antsy about Trump’s promises to upend the economy with immigration crackdowns and a potential trade battle with other nations.
These indexes suggest shoppers in four states seem energized after the votes were counted.
Texas saw a 24% rise in confidence in two months to 23% above average. Pennsylvania’s up 13% to 32% above average. Florida’s up 8% to 29% above average. All supported Trump.
But in Illinois, which Trump lost, optimism is up 6% to 43% above average.
Note that in Trump’s first year of his last presidency, California’s economic strength continued.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
Some of my popular tales of 2024 …
- No. 1: It takes $349,200 income to buy OC home, 3.5 times US salary
- No. 2: 20 least-affordable US cities to buy all in California
- No. 3: Pelican Hill switching to Marriott, St. Regis
- No. 4: California has 13 most-unaffordable small US cities
- No. 5: Temecula one of ’50 best places to live in US’
- No. 6: 3 in SoCal among fastest-selling home projects in US
- No. 7: Finally, Bass Pro opens in Irvine
- No. 8: California auto insurance premiums soaring 54% this year
- No. 9: ‘Ziggurat’ building in $150 million-plus bidding war
- No. 10: California’s hardest spot to find an apartment?