The economic outlook of California consumers has plummeted to a low last seen during the recovery from the Great Recession.
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indexes for March for eight states and the nation. This report peeks into the shopper psyche by polling consumers on their finances.
Ponder California’s “expectations” slice, which tracks consumer thoughts about what’s next for their monetary situation. For March, this forward-looking measurement was down 15% from February to its lowest mark since June 2012.
The clouded view comes from confusion not only among consumers – but corporate chiefs and economists, too – about the economic policies deployed since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January.
It’s unclear whether dramatic moves ranging from large government spending cuts to a deportation push to trade battles will push the economy into a significant slowdown. Moreover, the courts or Congress may have a say in whether Trump’s plan is fully realized.
All that uncertainty helps explain why this California yardstick of financial expectations is down 38% since October, just before the election that gave Trump a second term in the Oval Office. Using a longer lens, California’s expectations sit 26% below their average in an index dating back to 2007.
Curiously, Californians were upbeat when looking at the Conference Board’s “present situation” math.
This measurement of today’s economy was up 14% for March to its one-year high. It’s 33% above average. This suggests the economy remains stable even if the measure has dropped 6% since Election Day.
These two yardsticks combine to create the overall California consumer confidence index that was flat for the month. And overall optimism is just 1% below its 18-year average.
Could that be a sign of shopper adaptation to the Trump economy?
Well, since Trump was elected this measurement of overall consumer confidence is down 19% to a four-year low.
American angst
It’s not just the Golden State.
Expectations of the American consumer are at a low last seen in March 2013 after falling 13% in a month and 29% since October. This national outlook is 22% below its average since 2007.
Like California, the U.S. consumer was relatively happier with today. Americans’ view of the present situation was off 3% in a month and down 1% since October. But it’s 28% above average.
Overall, U.S. consumer confidence is also at a four-year low after slipping 7% in a month and 15% since October. Still, it’s only 1% below average.
Other places
Shoppers in all other states tracked by the Conference Board seemed spooked about the future. Here is how their expectations benchmarks have fallen, ranked by March’s performance …
Florida: Off 6% from February, down 19% since October, and 11% below the average since 2007.
Texas: Off 10% in the month, 0.1% since October and 1% below average.
New York: Off 22% in the month, 40% since October and 31% below average.
Illinois: Off 30% in the month, 32% since October and 21% below average.
Pennsylvania: Off 30% in the month, 50% since October and 46% below average.
Ohio: Off 34% in the month, 23% since October and 19% below average.
Michigan: Off 32% in the month, 37% since October and 35% below average.
Jonathan Lansner is business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com