”Survey says” looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations while noting these grades are best seen as a mix of artful interpretation and data.
Buzz: California confidence plummeted, post-election, as the politically blue state got the blues over Donald Trump’s victory.
Source: My trusty spreadsheet’s review of the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence indexes tracking nationally trends and eight states, including California. The polling that tracks shopper optimism ran almost two weeks past Election Day.
Topline
California optimism plummeted 12% in a month, by this index’s math. That’s the biggest tumble since May 2023.
Democrat-centric California was one of just 19 states that didn’t support Republican Trump in the presidential election. Curiously, California confidence rose 18% in the three months following Trump’s first win in 2016.
Californians’ sour outlook of their economics future was key to the drop in this measure of confidence.
A yardstick measuring monetary expectations for the Golden State fell 22% in the month – the biggest drop since July 2020 amid early pandemic confusion. California’s expectations index jumped 28% in the three months after the 2016 election.
By the way, California’s view of current conditions rose 1% in November. It rose 8% after Trump’s previous win.
Details
Why do I think confidence is connected to politics rather than various economic hurdles the Golden State faces?
Well, the two other states tracked by the Conference Board that didn’t support Trump also had declining confidence.
Illinois confidence dropped 7%, and its expectations were 17% lower, but its view of the current economy rose 2%.
New York’s optimism was off 1% in the month while expectations were 1% higher vs. a 3% drop in current conditions.
Meanwhile
Confidence rose in November in four of the five states that supported Trump.
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Michigan: Up 9% overall – expectations 2% lower, but current view 19% improved.
Ohio: Up 8% overall – expectations 19% higher but current view 3% lower.
Texas: Up 8% overall – expectations 8% higher and current view 9% improved.
Florida: Up 2% overall – expectations 0.1% lower but current view 5% improved.
Pennsylvania: The outlier with overall confidence down 7% as expectations fell 1% with the current view 14% lower.
Bottom line
The national optimism benchmark suggests modest hopes for the next administration, which assumes power on Jan. 20.
US consumer confidence rose 2% overall in the month, with Americans’ expectations 0.4% higher and their current views 4% improved.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com