With the fifth pick in Thursday’s NFL draft, the Los Angeles Chargers … should trade down.
Seriously.
When new general manager Joe Hortiz met the media Thursday for the traditional pre-draft briefing, he didn’t come right out and say that was the plan. Executives do not ever tip their hands leading up to a draft. But there have been “conversations,” he said, and those are guaranteed to intensify in the days and moments leading up to when the Chargers are on the clock.
It involves value, and the fifth pick – especially the fifth pick in a draft class top heavy with quarterbacks, a position at which the Chargers seem set with Justin Herbert – can be useful in ways beyond the guy who is eventually selected in that spot.
And in trying to transform a team that finished 5-13 last season – and has a far longer reputation for underachievement – into new coach Jim Harbaugh’s vision of a tough, physical, relentless group, it seems to make far more sense to use that bargaining chip, trade down and exchange one gifted player for multiples of talent.
Yeah, it may spoil the draft party if Hortiz relinquishes that spot at the top of the draft. He would seemingly be assured of getting a quality player at No. 5, considering that quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy could go in the top four and Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., son of the Indianapolis Colts Hall of Fame receiver, seems to be the consensus best non-QB in the draft.
“In terms of where we’re sitting, we believe – and I think Coach mentioned – we actually have the first pick if there’s a run of quarterbacks,” Hortiz said.
If Harrison is gone, perhaps to Arizona at No. 4, the assumption is that Minnesota at No. 11 would make an offer for the Chargers’ No. 5 to pick the best available quarterback, likely either McCarthy or Maye. If the QBs are gone, the Jets might be interested in that pick to grab Harrison.
So, the first questions: How badly will the Vikings or Jets or anyone else want that particular player, and how much of a ransom would they be willing to offer?
“There are really good players, great players, that we’re going to be staring at,” Hortiz said. “If we’re going to trade away from great players, there has to be a reason, in terms of value, for us. Certainly, there are going to be more great players in the draft, but it has to make sense to you and it has to make sense to the team that is wanting to come up.
“… They have to make it attractive for us to move away from those players. The whole, ‘It’s a fair trade, it’s a wash,’ I don’t think that’s a trade that we’re interested in.”
Daniel Jeremiah, an NFL draft analyst who also works with Matt “Money” Smith on Chargers’ radio broadcasts, said in a pre-draft Zoom call Wednesday that he’s expecting them to make a trade.
“I think in an ideal world they’d like to get out of (No. 5), trade back and get extra picks, build out as many players that kind of fit (Harbaugh’s) vision for the team,” he said. “To me, I think this makes sense to be kind of a volume draft for them, come away with some extra picks, continue to add guys that fit their new physical philosophy of how they want to play the game.
“… They’ve got a lot of things they need to get accomplished here,” he added, specifying not only a need to augment the wide receiver and offensive line rooms, but also talent at defensive tackle, cornerback and linebacker. “For (Harbaugh) to put his stamp on it, to me, I think it would be more about just the volume of the players they bring in that kind of fit what he wants to do. That’s going to go long after the first round’s over. I think they’ll do that throughout the draft.”
The wide receiver need is obvious, after salary cap issues prompted the Chargers to release Mike Williams (who signed with the Jets) and trade Keenan Allen to the Bears, where he likely will soon become Caleb Williams’ favorite target. The offensive line need is equally obvious, given Harbaugh’s preference for a physical brand of ball and the need to (a) protect Herbert and (b) create a credible threat of play-action passes. The offensive linemen most associated with the Chargers in those mock drafts (usually post-trade) is Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, though Notre Dame’s Joe Alt and Alabama’s JC Latham have also been mentioned.
But consider: There are at least 16 wide receivers and 21 offensive linemen projected as possible picks in the first three rounds, if the mock drafts are to be believed. And as Hortiz noted, given the way the game has been transformed over the years, there will almost always be a glut of wideouts year after year.
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Hortiz, who will oversee his first draft as a general manager after 25 years with the Baltimore Ravens in scouting and player personnel roles under GMs Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta, portrayed himself as a “best player available” guy, regardless of position.
“Certainly, there are some positions that we don’t need – you know, quote-unquote need, in quotations,” he said, a sly reference to Herbert. “But you’re one play away from needing a position. If you look at it based on need, you’re never just one player away, ever. … When you get a chance to add a great player, you add them. That’s how we’re going to approach it.”
Maybe that should read great players, plural. When you have leverage, you need to take advantage of it.
jalexander@scng.com