China has recorded a drop in marriage registrations for the first nine months of 2024, heightening fears of a demographic crisis in the country.
Despite a “sweeping government campaign to boost matrimony and encourage births”, said CNN, marriages and births are both “plummeting”, posing a “major challenge” for China’s leaders.
How much has it fallen?
Some 4.74 million Chinese couples registered their marriages in the first three quarters of 2024, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, a fall of 16.6% from the 5.69 million recorded in the same period last year.
The decline is “consistent with a falling trend” since the 2013 peak, when there were more than 13 million marriages, said CNN. It is in line with forecasts from demographic experts that marriages in 2024 will drop below 2022’s record low of 6.83 million since records began around 1980.
Although there was a “rebound in marriages last year”, this appears to be an “anomaly largely driven by pent-up demand” after Covid restrictions were lifted.
After its population shrunk for two years in a row, the birth rate in 2023 was the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. In 2022, China was overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation.
What’s behind the decline?
“Growing economic uncertainty and rising living costs” have “forced” many young couples to delay marriage, said Reuters. Getting married and starting a family has become a “heated subject” among young Chinese people, and many are choosing to wait because of “poor job prospects and worries about the future”.
Fewer marriages mean fewer births because social norms and government rules in China make it “challenging for unmarried couples to have children”, said CNN. So a growing number of young people are choosing to simply “eschew” marriage and parenthood entirely.
The “stubborn downward trend” particularly reflects changing attitudes among young women, who are becoming “more educated and financially independent” and are growing “disillusioned with marriage”.
CNN also cited “decades of policies” designed to limit China’s population growth, which have resulted in fewer young people of marriageable age, according to sociologists.
What is China doing about it?
China has been releasing a “slew” of measures to “bolster its sagging population levels”, said Reuters.
When the southern city of Changsha launched “bold initiatives and slogans” to encourage marriage and boost birth rates, it ignited “widespread controversy”, said the South China Morning Post.
Pink slogans displayed on a “marriage-themed” street featured phrases like “I enjoy making breakfast”, “I’d be willing to take care of the baby”, and “Having three children is the coolest”.
From next year, Lüliang, North China’s Shanxi Province, will offer a “cash reward” of 1,500 yuan (£162) to couples registering their marriage for the first time, as long as the woman is 35 years old or younger, said Global Times.
China’s Civil Affairs University announced a new marriage programme to promote and develop marriage-related culture, reported The Independent. It sets out to “highlight China’s positive marriage and family culture” but critics said it is “pointless”.