Since the start of his late-in-life pivot to a career in politics, Donald Trump has been known for his free-wheeling, extemporaneous campaign rallies, characterized by wild tangents, befuddling non sequiturs, and frequently violent exhortations to his audience of committed MAGA faithful. So when Trump abruptly ended a recent town hall event to inexplicably play 39 minutes of his favorite music while silently swaying onstage, the unexpected deviation from his typically bombastic rhetoric was conspicuous, to say the least. Moreover, what The New York Times dubbed a “strange conclusion to a political event that had started on familiar turf” comes just as Kamala Harris and her allies have begun focusing their campaign attacks on Trump’s mental acuity, resurrecting longstanding concerns about the former president’s state of mind to frame the final weeks of the 2024 election in stark cognitive terms.
Hope he’s okay. https://t.co/WGhGteFpjmOctober 15, 2024
Although Trump’s mental fitness is not a new field of political concern for the 78-year-old candidate, Harris’ choice to zero in on his erratic behavior and health-related evasiveness of late is a sign that the Democrats see an electoral opportunity in these closing days of the 2024 campaign. But while Harris and her team may hope that a focus on Trump’s cognitive capacity makes for a strong closing case, it’s decidedly less clear if voters are interested — especially so close to Election Day.
What did the commentators say?
The former president’s cognitive state has “long been one of those persistent unknowns—particularly given his refusal to release his medical records,” Time magazine said. That Harris is attacking him as mentally unfit now, in the wake of his recent “dance party,” suggests that those longstanding rumors have grown into a “roar that could not be ignored.” The public has arguably “never seen such a public meltdown of a presidential candidate nor one that coincided with such increasingly erratic behavior,” said David Rothkopf at The Daily Beast. Although “informed by the cumulative impact outlandish and destructive Trump behavior over the years,” this latest news cycle focusing on Trump’s mental fitness might actually impact voters in a way that his “leading an effort to overthrow the government or his alleged serial sex crimes had not.”
By going after Trump’s mental state “more aggressively” lately, Harris is delivering “not just a Resistance-y message that Trump is unhinged,” said The New Republic‘s Greg Sargent. It also “ties in the fact that he ducked a second debate with her” while “undermining the idea that he’s strong.” Moreover, said Brian Beutler in an interview with Sargent, it’s a “subtle and implicit way of making the media pay attention to what’s actually happening at these Trump rallies” when they might otherwise gloss over the details.
The renewed focus on Trump’s mental fitness seemed backed by polling data, with undecided voter focus groups watching this month’s vice presidential debate rating the “biggest moment of the first 15 minutes was Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz talking about Trump’s fickleness versus Harris’ steady leadership,” Axios said.
“Part of it is based on the numbers,” said NBC‘s Hallie Jackson. While Trump held a nearly 30-point edge on the question of mental fitness when Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, an NBC poll from September shows Harris with a “20-point lead on the same question.”
What next?
While Harris’ team has only started ramping up the attacks on Trump’s mental fitness in the last couple of weeks, Jackson said, it is “something we are likely to see more of until Election Day.” The “next three weeks will tell,” said The Daily Beast’s Rothkopf. But, he predicted, “Trump’s mental decline will become an ever bigger issue during that time and in the end, will be cited by many voters as the reason they ultimately felt they could not vote for him.”
Conversely, while the attacks may be a “necessary feeding of the beast,” said former Biden administration official Michael LaRosa at The Hill, “none of it is new and does little to change minds or alter impressions that voters already have at this point.”