Reform UK is on course to pick up hundreds of council seats across England in May’s local elections as the insurgent party looks to establish itself as a genuine alternative to the Tories and Labour.
The last time these councils were contested was in 2021. That was the high point of Boris Johnson’s premiership when the Conservatives won control of dozens of local authorities. Four years on and the picture could not look more different.
Where are elections and when?
Around a third of electors in England are eligible to vote in local elections to be held on Thursday 1 May.
In total, 23 councils will be contested, with more than 1,600 councillors up for election. These include:
14 county councils: Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.
8 unitary authorities: Buckinghamshire, Cornwall, County Durham, North Northamptonshire, Northumberland, Shropshire, West Northamptonshire and Wiltshire.
1 metropolitan district: Doncaster.
Six mayoral elections are also taking place in the West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, North Tyneside, Doncaster and – for the first time – in Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull and East Yorkshire.
In February, the government announced that local elections in East Sussex, West Sussex, Essex, Thurrock, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Suffolk and Surrey, due to also take place on 1 May, would be delayed for one year to allow for the reorganisation of local councils.
No routine elections are taking place in Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland.
Who can vote and what ID do you need?
The BBC, in collaboration with the Electoral Commission, has produced a postcode tool for voters to check if elections are taking place in their area on 1 May.
British citizens, qualifying Commonwealth citizens and those with citizenship of an EU member state are all eligible to vote in local elections, although rules vary according to which country you are from.
The deadline for registering to vote in time for the 2025 local elections is Friday 11 April. You can do this using the government’s Gov.uk portal and will need your National Insurance number.
After changes to the law brought in under the last Tory government, voters in England now need to show photo ID to confirm their identity at polling stations. You can see the list of accepted forms of identification here. The ID document does not need to be in date, as long as the photo is still clearly recognisable.
If you do not possess any of these, you need to apply for a free Voter Authority Certificate not later than Wednesday 23 April.
What are the polls saying?
Politico’s latest poll of polls puts Labour and Reform tied nationally at 24% of the vote, and the Conservatives on 22%. A multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll conducted by Electoral Calculus on behalf of The Telegraph earlier this month predicted “the Conservatives will lose a large amount of support and councillors” to Reform. “The Liberal Democrats are also expected to make some gains, while Labour might lose ground a little.”
The 1 May vote will be a “major electoral test of the popularity of a party that has spoken openly about ambitions to win the next general election”, said the BBC.
“Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government,” said Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus.
But large-scale delays to elections, affecting over five and a half million voters, in areas where Nigel Farage’s party is strong “will soften the scale of Conservative losses and reduce Reform’s gains”.
At the same time, the Liberal Democrats, who are polling around 14% nationally, have vowed to replace the Conservatives as the “party of Middle England”. “The party believes it can become the second largest in local government by surpassing the Conservatives, as well as making gains in areas where voters have become disaffected with Labour since the general election”, said London’s The Standard.
As for Labour, this will be Keir Starmer’s first major test at the ballot box since last year’s general election landslide. With traditionally Labour local councils such as Doncaster and Durham forecast to swing to Reform, the narrative that the far-right populist party is simply a problem for the Conservatives will be “shattered”, said Conservative Home.
Things could get even worse for Labour if Reform overturns a huge majority to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election taking place on the same day. Such a result, The Independent said, would be “disastrous for the government”.