A warehouse fire in London. A defector shot dead in Spain. A factory fire in Berlin. Alleged bomb plotters arrested in France and Germany. A new wave of terrorism? Not exactly. Instead, these “seemingly random attacks” are part of Russia’s “hybrid war on the West,” said CNN. That war is an outgrowth of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, aimed at sabotaging Kyiv’s European allies. The goal is to “weaken Western resolve to support Ukraine and undermine unity within the West,” said one expert.
That’s creating a “major challenge for the U.S. and NATO,” said The Hill. The attacks cannot be ignored. The trick now is to figure out how to respond “without sparking a major conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin.” There are no guidelines for how to respond to such “gray zone” attacks that fall short of a full-blown war, which is why European officials are treading cautiously. “Russia is throwing at us all the time new challenges, new risks,” said one ambassador, and the “hybrid [war] has turned to be one of the serious ones for the alliance.”
What did the commentators say?
“Russia is punching back at NATO in the shadows,” David Ignatius said at The Washington Post. U.S. intelligence agencies are providing information to European counterparts to “disrupt the saboteurs,” which have been “mostly linked to European logistical support for Ukraine.” Norwegian officials, for example, recently issued a warning that attacks could target companies that deliver arms to Ukraine’s defenders. That escalation makes the war even more dangerous for the world. “The danger of a misstep gets worse.”
The sabotage “is designed to fray Europe’s nerves and instill caution through fear,” said The Economist. But it’s not new. Russia has a long history — going back well before the Ukraine invasion — of supporting violent attacks that don’t quite approach the threshold of war: In 2011, for example, Russian intelligence units were linked to an arms depot explosion in Bulgaria. The latest wave of attacks is a sign of Vladimir Putin’s desire to “put pressure on the West to restrain Ukraine and limit its own involvement in the war.” So far, though, Ukraine’s support is holding steady. “The strategy has not worked.”
What next?
Western officials are still trying to formulate a response, said Financial Times. One possibility: A “tit for tat” information campaign that “rams home” the costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war to ordinary Russians. “If you are an average Russian, not a day should go by when you are not reminded of the huge number of casualties that Russian troops have suffered,” said Eliot Cohen, a former State Department adviser. More broadly, the goal is to create a deterrence strategy that doesn’t tip over into the kinds of “unethical or illegal means” being used by Putin’s agents.
In the meantime, U.S. officials have raised the alert at American military bases over “vague threats” from Russia about Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons, The New York Times said. Any attack on U.S. bases or personnel “would be a significant escalation of its war in Ukraine.” The new alert is designed to make sure service members are being cautious. The goal? “Remain vigilant and stay alert at all times.”