The sudden and dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is a “historic opportunity” but also a moment of “risk and uncertainty”, Joe Biden has warned.
Once the euphoria subsides, containing the reprisals and score-settling that have built up over half a century of Assad rule will be “difficult”, said Sky News. Various rebel groups backed by competing international powers control swathes of the country and, “we assume, they will all want their slice of power”.
It is “a moment of huge peril” and further conflict seems likely “unless this can be managed in an orderly way”.
What did the commentators say?
All eyes are now on Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), “the dominant player among the diverse opposition” that captured Damascus and toppled Assad, said Daniel Byman in The New York Times.
Formed in 2017 through the merger of several factions including al-Qaeda’s former Syrian affiliate, HTS is a “tricky proposition”, said UnHerd, in that “it emerged from al-Qaeda but it also later fought them”.
The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is “educated, sophisticated and politically astute” and “has by all accounts been on a journey since he was dispatched from Iraq with bags of cash to bring jihad to Syria”.
His “transformation” has been “carefully cultivated over the years”, said Mina Al-Lami, a jihadist media specialist, on the BBC. Since Thursday, he has dropped “the nom de guerre associated with his jihadist past” and begun using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in official communiqués – part of an effort to “bolster his legitimacy in a new context” as his group consolidates its control over much of the country.
What next?
Syria’s Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali has remained in Damascus and said he will cooperate with the rebels on “a smooth and systematic transition of government functions”, which will preserve “state facilities”. How he is treated will be a “good indicator” as to whether Jawlani and other rebel leaders are serious about upholding institutions and a government chosen by the people, said Sky News.
Engaging with HTS – currently designated a terrorist group by the US, UK and UN – will present its “challenges” , said Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, but “the designation presents important leverage for the US and international partners”. The Trump administration “could use that leverage to ensure HTS walks the walk as an acceptable actor” and does not compromise “US or regional security”.
Jawlani, for his part, has sought to redefine his organisation as a more moderate force, willing to uphold Syria’s ethnic and religious pluralism. He has promised a “transition to a state of governance and institutions” and even suggested HTS, having achieved its military victory, could voluntarily disband to pave the way for a civilian government.
“That would be a very unusual transition in the Middle East,” said the Los Angeles Times, “where players who gain power tend to hold on to it.”