A 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 28 killed more than 2,700 people, causing a major issue to loom over the country already besieged by civil war: how this natural disaster will affect Myanmar’s ruling military junta. The junta’s autocratic tendencies appear to be creating even more problems following the temblor — but some analysts say it could pave the way for the junta’s downfall.
The junta, which has ruled Myanmar since seizing power from the country’s democratically elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, in 2021, has reportedly not stopped fighting against pro-democracy rebel forces despite the deadly disaster. United Nations officials told the BBC that the junta has continued bombing rebel territories after the earthquake, even as the rebels declared a two-week pause in the fighting. It’s unclear whether this is a precursor for an even more powerful junta or the beginning of its end.
What did the commentators say?
How the junta’s generals “handle the emerging catastrophe could make or break their grip on power,” said Feliz Solomon at The Wall Street Journal. Mandalay and the capital, Naypyidaw, two of the most damaged cities in the nation, are “important power centers for the junta, which, according to independent monitoring groups, controls less than half of Myanmar’s territory.”
There is precedent for natural disasters having wide-ranging effects in the country; a 2008 cyclone in Myanmar pushed the country’s leaders (another junta at the time) to “engage with the United Nations,” and is “considered a watershed moment that helped lay the groundwork for Myanmar’s first democratic elections in a quarter-century” in 2008, said Solomon.
But “observers are worried the junta that has been losing swathes of territory to ethnic armed groups may continue a push to reverse its fortunes on the battlefield,” said Philip Heijmans at Bloomberg. There are also “concerns that international aid may not get to where it’s needed,” as was the case during the deadly cyclone in 2008. Between the “enduring conflicts and now a deadly earthquake, the suffering of Myanmar’s 50 million people is far from over.”
There are also several spiritual aspects to the earthquake; the head of the junta, General Min Aung Hlaing, rules Myanmar “based on astrological predictions. It can even be said that he governs the nation through astrological means,” an astrologer whose identity was kept secret said to Al Jazeera. There are “omens behind this earthquake,” and “according to the signs of this earthquake, his downfall is not far away.”
These “omens and rumors have long been prized in an authoritarian country with little free flow of information,” said Hannah Beech at The New York Times. The junta’s leaders are “hanging on even more to faith as their grip on the country diminishes,” and Min Aung Hlaing “relies heavily on Buddhist talismans to stay in power.” Junta leaders have “relied on fortunetellers and astrologers to guide their policy decisions,” meaning the earthquake could have a real effect on their choices.
What next?
Many believe the earthquake is an “ominous sign for the general,” said the Times. However, reports have emerged that the junta has indeed been “blocking aid to earthquake survivors, as international agencies urged ‘unfettered access’ to humanitarian aid in the conflict-riven nation,” said The Guardian.
The earthquake also comes as the junta has been “consistently losing ground, controlling less than 30% of the country’s territory, though it retains control of the biggest cities,” said The Guardian. The pro-democracy rebels have also said they intend to continue the fight after additional earthquake recovery efforts occur.