How much of a blow is ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu?

Israel has dismissed the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s decision to issue an arrest warrant for its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his former defence minister, Yoav Gallant. Leaders across the country’s political spectrum called it “outrageous” and “antisemitic”.

The Hague-based court said in its statement yesterday that there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that Netanyahu and Gallant each bear criminal responsibility for “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare” and “crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and other inhuman acts”.

What did the commentators say?

There is “no question” that the announcement is a “major blow” to Israel’s “international standing” and to Netanyahu’s “ongoing efforts to present its military campaign in Gaza as a fight between the forces of good and evil”, wrote the BBC’s Frank Gardner from Jerusalem.

It marks a “historic turning point”, said Stéphanie Maupas for Le Monde, because “for the first time since the creation of the Court in 1998”, political leaders have been “indicted against the wishes of their Western allies”. The Economist said the charges are a “real earthquake” and a “diplomatic disaster” for Netanyahu.

The arrest warrants “break through the perception that certain individuals are beyond the reach of the law”, Balkees Jarrah, senior counsel at Human Rights Watch, told Al Jazeera, and “should finally push” the international community to “address atrocities”.

There may also be “wider implications”, which “could limit the ability of third parties to cooperate with” the Israeli military, Eliav Lieblich, a professor of international law at Tel Aviv University, told CNN.

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But, domestically, it has done Netanyahu little harm, said the Financial Times. While “global reaction was mixed”, in Israel itself the warrants have “sparked outrage” from “allies and opponents alike” over what has been “widely interpreted” as an attack on the country’s right to defend itself.

Many of Netanyahu’s domestic political opponents “rallied to his defence”, said Middle East Eye, and, while some “enemies of the Jewish state” hope the decision will lead to “the demise of Israel”, said an editorial in the Jerusalem Post, it will be “seen by reasonable people around the world” as “a farce, a joke, a miscarriage of justice”.

What next?

Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant will “find it difficult” to travel internationally the “same way they did” before, said Al Jazeera, because all 124 countries that are signatories to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court are “legally obliged to arrest them if they travel to those countries”.

That said, Victor Orban, prime minister of Hungary, a signatory country, has already declared that he will invite Netanyahu to visit, said The Guardian.

Downing Street said yesterday that the UK will respect the ICC’s decision and comply with its legal obligations but Yvette Cooper told Sky News this morning that it “wouldn’t be appropriate” for her “to comment” on the processes involved.

To be clear, the warrants don’t mean that Netanyahu (or Gallant) will face trial anytime soon because, wrote Victor Peskin on The Conversation, “the ICC, in line with other contemporary international criminal tribunals, lack any enforcement powers of their own”.

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As long as he remains prime minister, Netanyahu will be “protected by the physical capabilities of the Israeli state”, wrote Michael Byers for Canada’s Globe and Mail, but “leaders, governments and national societies all change over time”. One day, “a future Israeli government” might decide to send him to The Hague, so the “spectre of a war-crimes trial will now hang over him for the rest of his life”.

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