The UK population is changing. Last year it grew at its fastest rate since the early 1970s, yet for the first time (outside of the pandemic) in 50 years the number of deaths was higher than births.
Migration has been the principal driving force behind the UK’s rapid population expansion, according to a new report by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). That has meant a “not negligible” increase of two million in the last five years, said The Times, pushing the total to 68.3 million with a forecast of potentially reaching 70 million within two years.
Why has there been such an increase?
The genuinely new aspect of the ONS statistics is that net migrations “wasn’t just part of the explanation” but the “entire explanation” for population growth, said Sky News.
Net international migration was at 677,300 in 2023, a record high. This accounted for the almost 1% increase in population size in a year when 16,300 more people died than were born.
The higher death rate was the first negative “natural change” since 1976, said the Daily Mail, and “offset” the increasing migration numbers. That is not an “unexpected” trend given the “large post-war birth cohorts who have benefited from longer lives” now reaching old age combined with a low birth rate, Professor Sarah Harper, director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, told the paper.
Where are people coming from?
Most of the migration is down to work-related arrivals from non-EU countries, with 85% originating from outside the continent. Only 10% were from the EU and 5% were British nationals returning. Most people came from India and Nigeria, which accounted for almost half of the people arriving. China, Pakistan and Zimbabwe rounded out the top five. Those statistics represent a stark change in migration trends from the last decade, when “net migration to the UK from the EU exceeded non-EU national net migration”, said The Times.
The statistics do not account for new changes the government made last year to reduce the number of legal migrants, including banning masters students and care workers from bringing family members with them, as well as higher salary thresholds for skilled workers.
The ONS has “yet to measure” what effect these changes might have on arrival numbers.
Will population growth slow down?
The ONS figures will “heap pressure” on Keir Starmer to fulfil his promise to bring down immigration figures, said the Daily Mail.
But the bigger concern will be a declining fertility rate and an increasingly ageing population. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects the number of people born in Britain to “start declining steadily from 2035”, said The Telegraph, and the country will become “dependent on migration to support the economy”.
An ageing population will create growing problems for the government, with “increasing demands on the public purse” because of health and pensions likely to be underfunded by “fewer future taxpayers who can help to finance this spending”.
Yes, there is likely to be a fall in net migration and sharp slowdown in population growth, Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, told the FT. But in the long term, the data confirms that the UK will “be increasingly dependent on migration to mitigate long-term decline both in fertility and in the working age population”.