President Donald Trump is nearing a self-imposed deadline for a deal to deter Iran’s nuclear program. The next step might be negotiations — or an attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
Trump is “seriously considering” an Iranian proposal for “indirect” talks on the issue, said Axios. That is the carrot. The stick is that America is also “significantly boosting” its forces in the Middle East, moving bombers and an aircraft carrier strike group to the region in case the president orders military strikes. He recently gave Iran’s leaders a two-month deadline to make a deal, “but it’s not clear if and when that clock started ticking.”
“The war drums are getting louder in Washington,” said Sina Toossi at Responsible Statecraft. While the president has said he “wants a deal,” hawkish factions connected to his administration are “promoting confrontation.” But a war would “blow up Trump’s broader agenda” and might motivate Tehran to push its nuclear program behind the threshold stage and actually build a weapon after decades of development. “That’s not the legacy” Trump should want.
‘Window of opportunity’
“It doesn’t look like the administration is playing around,” said Noah Rothman at the National Review. Israel’s recent “decimation” of Iran’s proxy groups Hamas and Hezbollah has arguably left the regime in Tehran more vulnerable than at any time since the 1979 revolution. An American attack on Iran would be “fraught” with risks, however. Iran could, for example, “activate terrorist assets” to strike targets inside Western countries. But there is a “window of opportunity” to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program: “It won’t be open forever.”
“Is an attack likely? Yes,” said Michael Rubin at 1945. The “chess pieces” are already moving into place. America has typically shown restraint toward the Islamic Republic, but Trump notably “does not constrain himself with diplomatic received wisdom.” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may actually want the U.S. to attack, which might “rally Iranians around the flag to make up for his declining legitimacy.” Even so, a confrontation is probably coming soon: “Time is ticking on a new conflict in the Middle East.”
‘On course to start a war’
It is “alarming to hear the drumbeat” for another war in the Middle East, said Daniel Larison at Eunomia. The Trump administration is asking too much of Iran: In addition to ending the nuclear program, the White House also wants the Iranians to “halt all support for allied groups throughout the region,” as well as “withdraw all their forces from Iraq and Syria.” Tehran won’t agree to such “humiliating” terms. It’s time for the American public to take notice: “The U.S. is on course to start a war with Iran for no good reason.”
Trump has “yet to demonstrate a coherent strategy for dealing with Iran,” said Imran Khalid at The Hill. The president “oscillates between threats and vague promises of negotiation” and in so doing actually encourages Iran to advance its nuclear program. Real diplomacy between America and Iran will take “trust, consistency, and a willingness to compromise,” but those qualities seem to be in “short supply.”