UCLA and USC are lined up for a potential Final Four showdown in Tampa, but not with the expected overall NCAA Tournament seeding.
Both teams are No. 1 seeds, as projected, but UCLA is the overall No. 1 for the first time — ahead of defending champion South Carolina. USC, thought to be in line for the third overall No. 1 seed, instead is the fourth behind Texas.
So the Los Angeles schools, both in the Spokane regional brackets, would meet in a national semifinal if form holds. South Carolina and Texas are the seed favorites to reach the Final Four out of regionals in Birmingham.
Connecticut is a No. 2 seed behind USC in the Spokane 4 region. Notre Dame is a surprise No. 3 seed behind Texas and TCU in the Birmingham 3 region.
Eleven teams from the West made the 68-team NCAA field announced Sunday. Six are automatic qualifiers as conference champions, including UCLA (Big Ten), with five at-large qualifiers. The highest regional seeds other than the Bruins and Trojans are Cal and Utah, both at No. 8.
Nine other schools from the western third of the country made the 32-team WBIT field, including Colorado as a No. 1 seed for being among the first four left out of the NCAA and Stanford, missing out on the NCAA for the first time since 1987.
Here are the Hotline’s predictions for the First Four and first round of the NCAAs.
Wednesday
Matchup: No. 11 UC San Diego vs. No. 16 Southern (First Four)Comment: UC San Diego won when it mattered in the Big West tournament, making the NCAA field in its first year of eligibility. Sumayah Sugapong was the tournament MVP, and Gracie Gallegos scored a career-high 24 in the title game. Southern is the SWAC champion for the third time in the last seven years. The Jaguars have yet to win an NCAA game. Pick: UC San Diego
Thursday
Matchup: No. 11 Washington vs. No. 11 Columbia (First Four)Comment: The Ivy League’s regular-season champion is No. 42 in NET ranking, two spots ahead of Washington. The Huskies won five straight before losing to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament and are back in the NCAAs for the first time since 2017. Elle Ladine averages 17.1 points per game. Columbia lost to Harvard in the Ivy League final, and its strength of schedule is much lower than UW’s. Pick: Washington
Friday
Matchup: No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 16 UC San DiegoComment: Coming off their Big Ten title, the Bruins are hosting an NCAA sub-regional for the second straight year. They made the Sweet 16 last season before losing to LSU. Their path this time around includes Richmond or Georgia Tech in the second round — presuming a first-round victory as a prohibitive favorite — then potentially No. 4 seed Baylor before No. 2 North Carolina State or No. 3 LSU again. Pick: UCLA
Matchup: No. 13 Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 BaylorComment: Even with a 30-game winning streak, the nation’s longest, Grand Canyon will need a significant upset to win its first NCAA Tournament game as a Division I school. Baylor is 10-7 in Quadrant I and II games and No. 42 in strength of schedule. (By comparison, GCU is 1-2 in QI/II games.). If the Lopes lose, Arizona State and Arkansas will be in hot pursuit of coach Molly Miller ahead of the transfer portal opening March 25. Pick: Baylor
Matchup: No. 13 Montana State (30-3) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (25-6)Comment: Montana State fought off rival Montana 58-57 to win the Big Sky tournament and clinch its first NCAA appearance since 2022. The Bobcats are 0-3 all-time in tournament play. Beating Ohio State is a daunting task, although the Buckeyes are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Jaloni Cambridge is the Big Ten co-Freshman of the Year and made first-team all-conference along with teammate Cotie McMahon. Pick: Ohio State
Matchup: No. 10 Oregon (19-11) vs. No. 7 Vanderbilt (22-10)Comment: High-scoring Vanderbilt is making a second straight NCAA appearance for the first time since 2013-14. The Commodores won a First Four game last year before losing to Baylor. Oregon is back in the NCAA after a two-year absence, rebounding from an 11-21 season in 2023-24. The analytics favor Vanderbilt, which has two wins over rival Tennessee. The Ducks are No. 8 nationally in strength of schedule, so a seeding upset is possible. Pick: Vanderbilt
Matchup: No. 8 Utah vs. No. 9 IndianaComment: Utah had a rough end to the season, losing three of its final five games (including to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament second round). Still, the Utes average 76.6 points and are blazing hot at times from 3-point range. Indiana made the Sweet 16 in 2024 before losing by four to eventual champion South Carolina. The Hoosiers are making their sixth straight NCAA appearance. Pick: Utah
Saturday
Matchup: No. 1 USC vs. No. 16 UNC GreensboroComment: USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb is not happy about being the lowest No. 1 seed, specifically because of the prospect of facing Connecticut in the Elite Eight for the second consecutive season. (“I never thought I’d be a No. 1 seed and feel disrespected,” she said Sunday.) JuJu Watkins probably will be the national Player of the Year, and the Trojans have enough around her to make their first Final Four since 1986. UNC Greensboro won the Southern Conference to reach the NCAA for the first time since 1998. Pick: USC
Matchup: No. 14 Oregon State vs. No. 3 North CarolinaComment: Coach Scott Rueck has been brilliant in bringing the Beavers, who were gutted by the transfer portal, from a horrendous start to the season all the way to the NCAA Tournament. OSU beat West Coast Conference co-champions Gonzaga and Portland on consecutive days for an improbable NCAA automatic bid. That said, beating No. 12-ranked North Carolina is a higher-level challenge that seems out of reach. Pick: North Carolina
Matchup: No. 14 San Diego State vs. No. 3 LSUComment: The Aztecs are also an NCAA surprise, coming out of the Mountain West tournament ahead of regular season champion UNLV and runner-up Wyoming. LSU is a heavy favorite but went 1-3 in its last four games with the losses to ranked opponents. The Tigers lost to Iowa in the 2024 Elite Eight. Pick: LSU
Matchup: No. 11 Washington vs. No. 6 West VirginiaComment: West Virginia is among seven Big 12 teams in the NCAA field with a definite advantage over Washington, which must recover quickly from its First Four test against Columbia. The Mountaineers put a scare into TCU in the Big 12 semifinals and feature an elite scorer and defender in JJ Quinerly (20.6 ppg). They made the second round in 2024 and should again. Pick: West Virginia
Matchup: No. 8 Cal vs. No. 9 Mississippi StateComment: Like the Utah-Indiana and Oregon-Vanderbilt matchups, this has the makings of a thriller. Cal is in the NCAAs for the first time since 2019 with a veteran team that lost 73-64 to Notre Dame in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. (Mississippi State fell to rival Mississippi in the SEC.) The winner likely faces USC in the second round, which for Cal would reunite two former Pac-12 members. Pick: Cal