The stakes will be higher than ever for Bears quarterback Caleb Williams this season, which is saying a lot considering he’s been playing in the spotlight dating back to his time at USC.
All eyes are on him, locally and nationally, as he seeks to prove to the Bears he’s their franchise quarterback and to the rest of the NFL that he’s going to be a problem for years to come. And his team is in a similar position coming off an 11-6 season that could be the start of something big or merely another aberration.
All the while, he’ll be playing for a quarter of a billion dollars.
Williams’ first two seasons were a roller coaster, both individually and with the pieces the Bears put around him, and this is the time to steady himself. Like any first-round pick, he’s eligible for a contract extension at the end of his third season, and the market rate figures to be a five-year deal worth at least $250 million.
Teams typically know what they have in a quarterback at that stage, and the Bears’ schedule sets up in a way that they’ll certainly know the truth about Williams by the end of it. Here are the five most consequential games for him:
1. Week 8 at Seahawks
This is the ultimate litmus test for Williams and the Bears, and not just because the Seahawks are the defending champions. With top talent at every spot defensively and a star defensive play-caller at head coach in Mike MacDonald, they’re the counterpoint to everything the Bears believe they’ve built.
They’re bringing back most of the starting lineup that won the Super Bowl, minus new Bears safety Coby Bryant, and that group made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks last season. it allowed a 77.9 passer rating, and the only opponents to register a 100-plus rating or throw for 300 yards were the Rams’ Matthew Stafford and the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield.
Williams will have had two full offseasons under coach Ben Johnson and, barring injury, 24 regular-season starts heading into this one. He should be ready to take on the best defense in the league.
2. Week 3 vs. Eagles
There’s an argument to be made that the Eagles have had the NFL’s best roster for five years running, and the Bears’ Black Friday win in Philadelphia last season got the entire country’s attention. It truly was their long-awaited breakthrough.
Williams, though, struggled in that game, even taking into account the cold and windy conditions. He finished with a season-lows in completion percentage (47.2), yards passing (154) and passer rating (56.9). He needs to paper over that with a better performance this season.
It’ll be his first nationally televised game of the season and he’ll have had two games to settle in by that point. Everyone will be watching to see if he’s really ready to take the next step.
3. Week 5 at Packers
Very little needs to be said about why any Packers game is big, but it’s especially true for Williams because of the Bears’ expectations that he’d finally be their answer to Green Bay’s overwhelming succession at quarterback from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love.
Williams’ moxie against the Packers was a major part of the hope he sparked last season, even while playing unevenly overall. He had the Bears on the brink of a victory at Lambeau Field, beat the Packers on a walk-off touchdown pass in overtime at Soldier Field and knocked them out of the playoffs in January.
With three wins in the rivalry in his first two seasons, Williams already has more than predecessors Justin Fields (0-6) and Mitch Trubisky (1-6) combined.
4. Week 15 at Bills
It’s a novel matchup since these teams rarely see each other — it’s the Bears’ seventh trip to Buffalo ever and the teams’ first meeting since 2022 — but it’s a doozy because of where it falls on the schedule. It’ll be a near-playoff game for Williams as both teams likely will desperately need the game amid the postseason chase.
This game could very well be a shootout, and the Bears will be counting on Williams to keep them in it. The Bills have been top-six in scoring the last five seasons and added wide receiver DJ Moore this year in a trade with the Bears. Anytime Williams faces one of the top quarterbacks in the league, Josh Allen in this case, the pressure will be on him to keep up.
This also comes during a stretch of three games in 12 days, with the Bears playing on short rest heading into Buffalo and after it with the Christmas Day home game against the Packers.
5. Week 7 vs. Patriots
Williams spent his rookie year chasing Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 pick in 2024 after Williams went No. 1, and now it’s the Patriots’ Drake Maye. Maye, who went third in that draft class, led the NFL with a 113.5 passer rating last season, narrowly missed out on MVP and went to the Super Bowl. There’s no disputing he’s out front.
A nationally televised Thursday night game between these two will be must-see television. It’ll also be a pressure-packed game for Williams going head-to-head with Maye, though both might downplay it publicly.
Like it or not, Williams always will be compared to the quarterbacks the Bears passed on to pick him. It has proven to be a strong class with Williams, Daniels, Maye and the Broncos’ Bo Nix, and the competition among those four will endure.