The ink has barely dried on the 2024 election results — but already attention has turned to the 2026 cycle, particularly for local House races.
The election last month gave Republicans much to cheer. The GOP swept control of the White House, the U.S. Senate and the House.
RELATED: Late Democratic House victories in California gnaw at GOP majority
But in Orange County, Democrats found more success this cycle. They managed to flip one of the six House seats that touch the county — attorney Derek Tran beat Rep. Michelle Steel in California’s 45th congressional district — and hang on to two other seats that proved to be tight contests this year.
With that as the backdrop, campaign operations working to elect Democrats to the House have already set their 2026 sights on another district that covers part of Orange County, the 40th.
Represented by Rep. Young Kim, R-Anaheim Hills, the district covers eastern Orange County plus small portions of western San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
Kim sailed to victory this year over Democrat Joe Kerr, a retired firefighter captain, with more than 55% of the vote.
Still, CA-40 is among the nearly 30 Republican-held or potentially open seats the House Majority PAC, which works to elect Democrats to Congress, has earmarked as “top targets for House Democrats in 2026.”
“Headed into the midterms with lessons learned from 2024, HMP is … launching a 2026 Recruitment Fund — which will allow us to recruit and prepare potential candidates earlier than ever,” the PAC said in a Dec. 11 memo.
The PAC said it would work to recruit “quality candidates,” conduct “ongoing qualitative and quantitative research to understand the most effective persuasion and mobilization messaging for key voters” and invest in outreach for AAPI, Black and Hispanic voters.
MAP: California’s new House delegation, after 3 districts flipped to Democrats
But Jessica Millan Patterson, chair of the Republican Party of California, points to voter registration in CA-40. Republicans have the upper hand when it comes to registered voters in the district, and those numbers have only been increasing since the 2022 midterms.
Republicans, according to the secretary of state’s latest tally from Oct. 21, account for 38.29% of registered voters while Democrats make up 33.46% and 21.98% are no party preference.
“We, generally speaking, don’t lose when we have a Republican registration advantage,” said Patterson, who is set to depart the chairmanship in March due to term limits.
“I think it’s incredibly difficult for Democrats to win in a seat where there’s a Republican advantage,” she said. “Foundationally, I think they’re already off to a tough battle.”
In CA-45, for example, Democrats held the registration edge heading into Election Day, 37.07% to 33.05%.
Patterson noted that was a top-targeted district by both parties this year — and it was an extremely close contest, one of the last House races to be called in the country — but she also acknowledged “a little more investment could have changed the outcome there.”
And Republican House candidates in Southern California, Patterson said, are having to navigate campaigns differently after Kevin McCarthy, a Bakersfield Republican, stepped down from the speakership and Congress.
“Certainly, having the speaker of the House who is so incredibly engaged in what we did here in California, who understood California politics, it was tough not having him in that same role in 2024,” Patterson said, suggesting candidates will need to do more to “make themselves targets, prove themselves that they can do it, not necessarily with outside help.”
Kim, she said, is a strong candidate, someone who is personable, raises money and knows how to talk to voters.
“I welcome anyone to try to challenge Young Kim,” Patterson said.
Other California districts included on the HMP target list for Democrats include the 3rd, 22nd and 41st.