One of the things to watch in the Chicago election returns is the vote Donald Trump will get in the city he loves to trash. Trump’s percentage of the vote increased a bit in 2020 compared to 2016. The question is whether, in this deep blue town, Trump gets a bump in 2024.
This will be the third time Trump is on the ballot, so we have some history to work with here.
In 2016, the Donald Trump-Mike Pence Republican ticket got 12.41% of the vote compared to the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton-Tim Kaine, which won 83.73% in the 50 wards of the city of Chicago.
In 2020, the Trump-Pence ticket improved to get 15.83% of the vote to the 82.52% the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris ticket got in the city.
Because Chicago is very much a segregated city, the ward returns can be broken down along race and ethnic lines.
For the past two elections, voters in the same handful of heavily white wards gave relatively substantial support to Trump. That is, more than 25%.
Voters in about a dozen mainly Black wards on the South and West Sides overwhelmingly — more than 90% — backed Biden and Clinton.
Before I list the wards, you should know this: The 2024 ward lines were redrawn after the 2020 Census. The 2016 to 2020 comparisons are apple to apple.
In 2024, the ward boundaries are different — but not that different in the key Chicago Trump wards.
Two wards on edges of the city — the mainly white 41st on the far North Side and the 19th on the far Southwest Side — have been major sources of Trump votes in 2016 and 2020.
Trump also stands his best chance of picking up city votes in the far Northwest Side wards where Orthodox Jewish voters live, especially the 50th and 39th. While most Jews in the U.S. are center to liberal/progressive Democrats, Orthodox Jews, who are more politically conservative, tend to be Republican.
This vote comes as the war in Gaza has been raging for more than a year and antisemitism is on the rise. In Chicago, the shooting last Saturday — the Jewish Sabbath — of a 39-year-old man on his way to a West Ridge synagogue by a man charged with attempted murder and a hate crime, likely only reinforced a choice for Trump for some voters.
And while Chicago and the state of Illinois is deep blue, a pro-Trump commercial from the Republican Jewish Coalition’s political arm has been playing on Chicago cable outlets.
The spot is set in an obviously Jewish deli. The four older women sitting in a booth — one with a coffee cup saying “life, liberty and pastrami” are talking — in a heavily American Jewish syntax.
“Did you watch the news lately? Israel’s under attack; antisemitism like I never thought I would see.”
“What about Kamala?” another woman asked. “Busy defending the squad.” That’s a reference to a group of House members who are among the most pro-Palestinian members of Congress.
“You know Trump, I never cared for, but at least he’ll keep us safe,” a woman said. Another added, “I never voted Republican in my life. I am voting Trump.” Then another woman added, “Amen.”
Thanks to WBEZ’s Alden Loury for data analysis assistance of the top Trump Chicago wards 2022 and 2016.
Top Trump Chicago wards in the past two presidential elections
41st Ward
2022 – 47.02%
2016 – 42.62%
38th Ward
2022 – 39.70%
2016 – 35.21%
19th Ward
2022 – 38.14%
2016 – 35.06%
50th Ward
2022 – 33.77%
2016 – 25.62%
23rd Ward
2022 – 32.59%
2016 – 26.82%
11th Ward
2022 – 30.82%
2016 – 25.82%
13th Ward
2022 – 30.79%
2016 – 25.67%
45th Ward
2022 – 30.15%
2016 – 27.52%
39th Ward
2022 – 28.53%
2016 – 24.96%