Justin Steele has been the best homegrown Cubs pitcher in a long time. After being taken in the 5th round of the 2014 draft, Steele has been a star in Chicago. After spending years in the Cubs minor league system, Steele made his debut in 2021. Since then, his 3.3 ERA, 126 ERA+, and 7.7 bWAR are some of the best in the majors. He has also maintained relatively good health, pitching in at least 119 innings every year since 2022.
So, should the Cubs look to give the southpaw an extension this season or wait until he hits the open market?
The Cubs avoided arbitration this season and settled on his $6.55 million salary. But with two years of arbitration left before he will hit free agency in 2028, should the Cubs avoid all the hassle and extend him this season?
Pitchers arent cheap
The starting pitching market is anything but cheap. Last off-season, the top three pitchers signed for a combined $610 million, with Max Fried and Corbin Burnes each getting north of $200 million. They were the same age Steele will be later this season when they broke the bank in free agency. It’s possible that Steele would get a number like that if he was eligible to hit the open market, as his numbers are very comparable, if not better. While Steele doesn’t have elite velocity, his location and command make him a weapon on the mound.
We all know that free agency isn’t known for its bargains. So, the Cubs may be smart to bypass his free agency by giving him an immediate pay raise. While this would be more expensive in the present day, it would be less than they would spend in a future bidding war. We see clubs buy out players’ arbitration years and their early free-agent years all the time. And as a result, earn a discount for the player’s services.
An extension could save money down the line
Many clubs have taken this approach with their homegrown young players. Take, for example, the Athletics, who recently extended outfielder Lawrence Butler for 7 years and $65.5 million. Butler, who is 24, will be locked up until his age 31 season. The Athletics avoided his initial free agency, giving themselves a discount in the long run.
Ideally, the Cubs would like to do the same as Steele but on a grander scale. The Cubs could likely sign the pride of Lucedale, Mississippi, for a slight discount if they do so quickly. While Steele wouldn’t be as cheap as Butler, extending him would undoubtedly be a money-saver for the Cubs.
My best guess is that the Cubs would aim to sign Steel to a 5-year, $125 million deal. This deal would equate to $25 million AAV, ranking Steele as the tenth highest mark in that area at the time of the deal. This would allow the Cubs to keep Steele for another half-decade on a relatively inexpensive deal. For Steele, this would give him a significant pay raise for the next two years and would allow him to enter free agency after his age 34 season. I believe this is the fairest arrangement for both sides.
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