Why new Blackhawks prospect Xavier Villeneuve might be a future star — or might be a bust

Blackhawks fans might fall in love with Xavier Villeneuve in a few years and spend the next decade watching in awe as he dances around the ice at the United Center.

Or they might never see him at all.

One of those outcomes is relatively likely for Villeneuve, the first of the Hawks’ two boom-or-bust draft picks early in the second round.

The 5-11, 163-pound defenseman draws comparisons to budding Canadiens star Lane Hutson, who was a second-round pick, too. That’s obviously the Hawks’ dream scenario.

But for every Hutson, there’s a Nicolas Beaudin, one of the Hawks’ biggest draft busts of recent years. That fact isn’t lost on anyone, including Alexandre Jacques, Villeneuve’s coach last season with Blainville-Boisbriand of the QMJHL.

‘‘[Xavier is] not like a, let’s say, 6-4 player that’s big and strong . . . and you know it’s a sure thing when you draft him,’’ Jacques said. ‘‘You don’t expect him to become a superstar, but you know he can play on the third line, so it’s a safe pick.

‘‘For Xavier, it’s like you’re hitting a home run. He’s either going to be a Lane Hutson or he’s not going to play. It’s hard to project the future for this type of guy.’’

For the Hawks, the risk makes sense because they don’t need a third-pairing plug-in. They have other prospects with decent odds of developing into that type of player.

What they do need is what every team needs: star power. And Villeneuve has way more of that than anyone else who was still available at No. 34 overall.

‘‘He was just one of those guys that really popped for me when I met him in person,’’ Hawks general manager Kyle Davidson said.

‘‘With how he talked about [hockey], even just knowing about the league, you can tell he loves the game and loves the sport. I just felt the passion oozing out of him. That gives you belief he’s going to do everything possible . . . to become the player he can be.’’

Road to here

Villeneuve’s dad, Alexandre, passed that passion to his son, who started playing at 4 while growing up in Quebec.

There was never a specific moment when Villeneuve realized he might have a future in hockey because he operated that way from the start, even though he was the youngest player on every team because of his September birthday.

‘‘It’s going to sound cocky, but it was always my dream and I always believed in it, even though you’re 9 years old,’’ Villeneuve said. ‘‘My expectations and standards were always pretty high to achieve that goal. I’m not there yet, but I think it’s going well.’’

It was going particularly well in January, as Villeneuve had racked up 36 points in 35 games for Blainville-Boisbriand while also improving his defensive play. Jacques felt comfortable giving Villeneuve defensive-zone starts and difficult matchups, which he hadn’t received previously, and NHL scouts were noticing.

Then a hip injury sidelined Villeneuve for more than two months, and he failed to rediscover his rhythm in two regular-season and 17 playoff games after returning. He especially struggled defensively.

‘‘The 2.5 months without playing kind of caught up to him,’’ Jacques said. ‘‘In the playoffs against big guys, it was a little tougher for him. . . . He’s smart enough [that] he knows he’s not going to go defend body-to-body, strength vs. strength. He’s got to defend with his edges and speed.’’

Said Villeneuve: ‘‘It was not a good season for me. I think he said it in a more polite way, but it didn’t go the way as planned.’’

He considered sitting out the end of the season not to jeopardize his NHL draft stock, and he arguably should have. He might have been a first-round pick. The Hawks, however, were happy about how it panned out.

At development camp after the draft, Villeneuve was transparent about the fact his hip still wasn’t 100%, but it should be by the start of the season.

Looking ahead

Villeneuve will spend the coming season — and likely 2027-28, as well — at Boston University, which he chose in part because Hutson exploded into a top prospect there.

‘‘Being in Montreal, everyone loved the Habs, so they were drawing the comparisons [between Hutson and me],’’ Villeneuve said. ‘‘As I got older, [given] what he’s doing right now, people started to really compare us. But what he’s doing right now is unbelievable. Hopefully I can get there soon.’’

Hawks scouting director Mike Doneghey also likes the BU path for Villeneuve, especially because the same coaching staff that molded Hutson remains in place.

Jacques no longer will be involved with Villeneuve’s development, but he did share some advice.

‘‘[He needs to improve] his play under pressure, his puck recoveries under heavy forecheck and being able to play in tight areas under pressure,’’ Jacques said. ‘‘He’s got the ability, skills and edges to do it. Now it’s about doing it on a consistent level.

“[Retrieving] 50/50 pucks in the corners after rebounds, to be good at it, he’s going to have to do it his way and not try to overpower players.’’

The relatively light college schedule will give Villeneuve more gym time to gain weight and strength. Doneghey hopes he eventually can achieve a ‘‘thicker build’’ in the mold of Matt Grzelcyk, probably around 180 pounds.

Villeneuve thinks he might grow another inch or two because his dad is 6-1. That would be unusual but not unprecedented at his age.

He’s a self-described ‘‘hockey geek’’ who watches a lot of NHL games, a surprising rarity among prospects nowadays. On nights off, he often would choose a Western Conference matchup to watch after the Canadiens, focusing on top defensemen such as Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar.

‘‘I’m not comparing myself to them, but there’s so much I can learn from watching those guys,’’ Villeneuve said.

Said Jacques: ‘‘[Xavier] is going to be able to do things at the offensive blue line that we had never seen before, but now it’s starting to be a trend in the NHL with the Hugheses and Hutsons of this world.’’’

Executing those moves requires ample confidence in addition to ample talent, and that trait is one in which Villeneuve really stands out.

Jacques called it a ‘‘certain cockiness’’ that any athlete needs to make it to the pros, and he sees that in his former player.

It will take years to see whether Villeneuve does make it, but he hasn’t been deterred at all by his setback this spring. He’s getting right back to work.

‘‘Showing up, doing all the extras — for me, that’s where the confidence comes from,’’ Villeneuve said. ‘‘Because that move that I’m going to do that sounds crazy to some people, I’ve done it probably 25,000 times before.’’