The Blackhawks might want to root against themselves in the NHL draft lottery this year.
That sounds ridiculous at first, but there’s actually a logical reason. It stems from a rule the league installed in 2021 that prevents any team from moving up in the draft order via lottery draw more than twice in any five-year span.
The Hawks obviously moved up in 2023, getting the No. 1 pick with the third-highest odds. They technically also won the lottery for the No. 2 pick in 2024 with the second-highest odds. That, however, didn’t count toward the aforementioned rule because they merely retained their “presumptive” draft position.
The Hawks enter this year’s lottery, which will take place sometime in early May, in the same position as last year. The one point they earned Saturday against the Jets secured for them 31st place — between the last-place Sharks and the 30th-place Predators.
They’re guaranteed a top-four pick. They’ll enter the lottery with a 13.5% chance of picking first, a 14.1% chance of picking second, a 30.7% chance of picking third and a 41.7% chance of picking fourth.
If the Hawks land the No. 1 pick, they will be prevented from moving up in the lottery in both 2026 and 2027, marking the first time that new rule has come into play.
On one hand, the Hawks sincerely hope to begin climbing the standings next season — and if they succeed in doing so, their lottery odds will be significantly lower. On the other hand, maintaining even slim chances of moving up in those years would probably be more valuable than moving up one spot this year.
The dynamics of the 2025 draft class are the biggest reason why. Canadian defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the consensus No. 1 pick, but the next six-to-eight best prospects are all forwards.
Given the current state of the Hawks’ prospect pool, they need another elite forward much more than they need another elite defenseman.
Every NHL general manager — including Hawks GM Kyle Davidson — heralds the logic of selecting the “best player available” instead of drafting prospects specifically to fill positional needs. Indeed, positional needs can change quickly, and trades can be used to redistribute imbalances down the road.
But it would unquestionably make the Hawks’ situation more complicated if they ended up with Schaefer rather than forward Michael Misa — who has emerged as the consensus No. 2 pick — or another forward such as Porter Martone, Anton Frondell, Caleb Desnoyers or James Hagens (the class’ former top prospect whose stock has gradually declined).
With Schaefer, Artyom Levshunov, Sam Rinzel, Kevin Korchinski and Alex Vlasic, the Hawks would be overwhelmed with potential top-pairing young defensemen and be unable to give them all sufficient opportunities. Young forwards Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore, meanwhile, wouldn’t have enough complementary pieces developing in the pipeline.
A positional imbalance to that extent would basically necessitate a trade, yet Davidson also frequently heralds how the trade market takes two to tango. Plus, trading top prospects rarely returns fair value.
Trading down from the No. 1 pick is rare and difficult in the NHL, too, even though that would theoretically be an option. That hasn’t happened since 2003.
Many Hawks fans have already begun salivating over Misa, whose well-rounded game has dominated the OHL the season.
The Hawks, of course, would be free to select Misa — or whomever they determine to be the class’ best forward — with the No. 1 pick, regardless of public perception. But they would still lose their future upward mobility in that case.
That’s why sticking at No. 2 would certainly be the best-case outcome. Depending on how large the Hawks consider the gap between the best and second- and third-best forwards to be, even falling to No. 3 or 4 might be better than winning.