SAN ANTONIO – It’s obvious that Wrigley Field played a role in suppressing the Cubs’ offense, and much of the discussion about the conditions this year have hinged on that aspect. But it goes both ways, and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer isn’t shying away from that fact.
“Certainly,you can’t look at the Wrigley factor as on only one side,” he said Tuesday at the GM meetings. “It affects everybody.”
That isn’t to say Cubs starting pitchers don’t deserve credit for putting up the second-best ERA in the National League (3.77). Starting pitching, the Cubs’ most reliable strength last season, carried the team for stretches.
Shota Imanaga put together a historic start to his rookie season and exceeded expectations overall. Justin Steele backed up his breakout 2023 season, continuing to evolve in 2024. Jameson Taillon was a model of consistency. Javier Assad earned a regular rotation role.
In evaluating last year’s performance for the purposes of planning for the offseason, however, the Cubs have to take the park factor into consideration. Last season, Wrigley Field played as the second-most pitcher-friendly home ballpark in MLB.
“All that said, I was really impressed with what our pitching did,” Hoyer said. “I mean, we had a lot more injuries than expected. … Our starting pitching kind of hung in.”
That’s why – even though young pitchers who were limited by injuries like Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks and Cade Horton have a chance to play a bigger role next year – the Cubs are expecting to pursue starting pitching this offseason.
It would be shocking, however, if they did so by going all in on the top of the free agent market.
It might be tempting for Cubs fans to look at Corbin Burnes, the best free agent starting pitcher available, and his Milwaukee ties with Cubs manager Craig Counsell, and dream about a reunion. Burnes is also projected to reel in something like $200 million for his next contract, which appears to take the Cubs out of the running.
The Cubs, after all, built their current, strong, rotation through a combination of homegrown talent and deals that weren’t quite as splashy. Taillon’s contract for four years and $68 million and Imanaga’s for four years and $53 million guaranteed are holding up well.
If the Cubs are going to give out a big multi-year deal, it’s believed they’re much more likely to do so for a starting pitcher than a reliever. But from a volume perspective, the bullpen will take the most work to shore up for next year.
“You think about different areas that you want to invest significant amounts of your dollars, and, for the most part, starting pitchers and position players are less volatile than relievers,” Hoyer said. “And so that’s really the gist of it. … And you’re more likely to find impact out of a bullpen in minor league free agency, in a small trade, in a waiver claim, than you are likely to get 25 homers out of a guy like that. So there are other avenues to fix your bullpen.”
Hoyer has been part of big-name closer acquisitions like Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel, but those came down to timing within a competitive window.
After this season, Hoyer took accountability for the bullpen’s early struggles after a wave of injuries. He’s keeping that top of mind this winter.
“It’s almost like assuming in April that three guys are going to go down, because they probably will,” he said, “and then having the depth in April to do [cover for them].”