The season starts on Saturday for the Kansas City Chiefs as they host the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round on Saturday.
The theme of this season has been to make NFL history with a third consecutive Super Bowl title. Despite a 15-2 regular season record, the anticipation for the postseason has been at the forefront for Chiefs fans.
The long wait for the postseason ends tomorrow as the Texans stroll into Arrowhead Stadium. Houston dominated the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card, 32-12, to advance.
The Chiefs and Texans battled less than a month ago when Kansas City picked up a 27-19 win. The two squads have also done battle in the playoffs.
Back in the 2019 Divisional round, the Chiefs completed the largest comeback in franchise history against Houston after trailing by 24 points. Patrick Mahomes threw for five touchdowns in a 20-point win.
After a big win over the Chargers, the Texans look to upset the top seed, while Kansas City looks to continue their quest for the three-peat. Let’s look at some keys on Saturday.
Chiefs Offensive Line vs Texans Pass Rush
The Houston pass rush was a catalyst in their Wild Card win. The Texans’ pass rush pressured Justin Herbert on 39 percent of his dropbacks. The Chargers QB went 1-for-10 passing with 17 yards and an interception under duress. Houston tacked on four sacks as well.
Houston’s ability to get to Mahomes will be crucial. Their pass-rush duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter has become one of the league’s best. The two have combined for 23 sacks in the regular season.
While the struggles of Herbert stand out from last week, the interior defensive line controlled the Los Angeles run game. The Chargers only ran 50 yards after averaging over 110 yards on the ground per contest in the regular season.
The veteran trio of Denico Autry, Mario Edwards, and Tim Settle will be a challenge for the Chiefs after a big performance.
Speaking of the interior offensive line for the Chiefs, the team has decided to start Joe Thuney at left tackle over D.J. Humphries. Kansas City decided to stick with Thuney, who played well at the position in the final weeks of the regular season.
#Chiefs plan to start Joe Thuney at left tackle Saturday vs. #Texans, per sources. D.J. Humphries is healthy, but Thuney, a Pro Bowl guard, flourished in tackle relief while Humphries was hurt. So, Chiefs prepared to ride the hot hand. pic.twitter.com/ep1vvU8VGL
â Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) January 17, 2025
Humphries has looked slow against athletic, speed rushers in his limited playing time this year. It is the right move to stick with Thuney against Anderson Jr this week.
This means Mike Caliendo will start at left guard, becoming a catalyst for the two-time defending champs. Houston will target him and try to take advantage of a less weak interior.
With Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, Kansas City should be able to find some success running the ball with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.
Patrick Mahomes vs the Texans Secondary
The Texans secondary took advantage of the pass rush’s success last week, hauling in four interceptions, including a pick-six from Eric Murray. To put that in perspective, Justin Herbert was picked off only three times in the regular season.
With a strong duo at cornerback with First-Team All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie Kamari Lassiter, it will be key for Mahomes to spread the ball around.
Mahomes has been successful in spreading the wealth this season as eight different Chiefs have at least 200 receiving yards. The return of Hollywood Brown late in the regular season will also pay dividends on Saturday.
Kansas City has five reliable weapons, which could cause havoc for the Houston secondary. In addition to Brown’s return, the emergence of Xavier Worthy has taken the offense to a new level. Deandre Hopkins has some of the best hands in the league and has recorded at least four receptions in seven of his ten games in KC.
Travis Kelce continues to be the go-to guy for Mahomes, and his track record in the playoffs speaks for itself with over 1,900 yards and 19 touchdowns in 22 games. Fourth-year tight end Noah Gray has emerged this season with a career-high in catches, yards, and touchdowns.
The Houston secondary fed off the success of their pass rush. If the Chiefs can limit the pass rush, and Mahomes can continue to spread it around, the Texans could be in trouble.
The Return of Jaylen Watson
The Chiefs defense is getting a big boost in the secondary on Saturday with the return of Jaylen Watson. The former Washington State Cougar has been out since fracturing his ankle against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7. He was activated to the 53-man on Friday and is set to start.
CB Jaylen Watson is expected to return to the #Chiefs starting lineup against the Houston Texans on Saturday, per @ByNateTaylor. pic.twitter.com/GQHFYVOoIi
â KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) January 16, 2025
Watson played a big role prior to his injury, acting as the replacement for L’Jarius Sneed. He played over 90 percent of the defensive snaps and allowed under 54 percent completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks.
The secondary struggled without Watson as Nazeeh Johnson couldn’t fill the void with Watson out. With his return, expect Kansas City to be more aggressive at getting to the quarterback.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitzed over 31 percent of the defensive snaps this season (fourth-highest in the NFL). Kansas City can be more aggressive and draw up the blitz more with a boost in man coverage as Watson holds a 74.2 coverage grade, according to Pro Football Focus.
Prediction
The Chiefs are the healthiest they have been all season entering Saturday. Having key pieces back on defense, while the offense is starting to click brings confidence to Chiefs fans. The Texans’ pass rush could provide some challenges, but Mahomes has been successful by spreading the ball around and Kansas City has a plethora of options. On defense, expect a more aggressive approach with full health in the secondary.
Houston showed up last week and dominated at home, but the Chiefs play their best football in the postseason.
Score: Chiefs 31, Texans 17
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