The Minnesota Vikings are positioned to withstand losing Sam Darnold in free agency, and a new prediction calls for them to do just that.
Darnold, 27, signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Vikings in free agency in 2024. He made the Pro Bowl in 2024, winning the most games (14) of any QB in their first year with a new team in NFL history.
Pro Football Network’s Ben Rolfe predicts Darnold will take his talent to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
“The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a tricky spot entering 2025. They did just well enough in 2024 to suggest that they should not tear it all down but were far enough away that they need to add in multiple spots if they are to challenge for a Super Bowl. They need to figure out a quarterback but also have to improve at wide receiver while filling holes at running back, left tackle, and cornerback,” Rolfe wrote on February 19.
“Based on last year, it is fairly obvious that Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are not taking this team over the hump.”
Wilson, who made his 10th Pro Bowl in 2024, was 6-5 as the Steelers QB1, while Fields went 4-2.
Darnold completed 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards and 32 touchdowns – both career-high marks – with 12 interceptions.
“If Wilson and Fields are not coming back, then the best free agent quarterback is Sam Darnold,” Rolfe wrote. “Playing for the Vikings last year, Darnold produced his best season, finishing as the QB12 in our QB+ metric — above both Wilson and Fields. He still needs help to elevate this team to a deep playoff run, but Darnold would allow the Steelers to remain competitive in 2025.”
Sam Darnold a Tag-&-Trade Candidate
GettySam Darnold #14 of the Minnesota Vikings looks to pass against the Green Bay Packers.
Other teams’ ability to land Darnold could come down to their willingness to part with draft capital in a trade with the Vikings. The Vikings let the deadline to adjust Darnold’s contract void date expire, reserving the right to use the franchise tag on the QB this offseason.
According to Over The Cap, the franchise tag is worth $42.4 million for QBs in 2025. Spotrac projected a $40.1 million annual value for Darnold.
Spotrac also projected a four-year, $160.4 million pact for Darnold.
The length could be more problematic than the dollar amount. The Vikings still have 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy on hand. McCarthy is fully healed after tearing his meniscus and missing his rookie season.
However, he must gain back the weight he lost during his rehab and prove that he can be the Vikings’ QB1 during a window of contention.
The Vikings can use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Darnold and trade him later
That would allow them to evaluate McCarthy in football-related activities and establish a baseline cost for potential trade suitors. The Vikings would receive two first-round picks if a team signed Darnold to an offer sheet and Minnesota did not match.
Over The Cap projects the Vikings will have $63.3 million to spend this offseason. Signing Darnold would take up a significant portion of that.
Sam Darnold’s Long-Term Deal ‘Unlikely’ to Come From Vikings
GettyMinnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell speaks to quarterback Sam Darnold #14 before a game against the Houston Texans.
If Darnold does ink a multi-year contract, the chances of it coming from the Vikings appear slim to none. It is also unclear if there is a team willing to pay what it might cost to trade for Darnold this offseason.
“The Vikings still have all options available when it comes to Darnold. They could sign him to a multiyear extension. Unlikely. They could franchise-tag him. Possible. They could allow him to depart via free agency. Most likely,” The Athletic’s Alec Lewis wrote on February 20. “Whether or not the franchise tag becomes an option depends on whether another team would be willing to trade for Darnold.”
Lewis also pointed to the Steelers while adding the Las Vegas Raiders as a potential landing spot for Darnold.
Darnold and the Vikings could drive the discussion for much of the offseason.
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