Free agency is creeping up on the NFL calendar, and the closer it gets the less likely it appears the Minnesota Vikings will take the risk of keeping quarterback Sam Darnold — or even trying to get something in return for him ahead of his departure.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell on Monday, February 24, authored a deep dive into the process awaiting Darnold and Minnesota, and his conclusions were not particularly positive for either side.
The Vikings theoretically have the Super Bowl building block that every team wants: a highly capable quarterback in J.J. McCarthy on an inexpensive rookie deal, which is an even greater advantage considering the amount of salary cap space at the team’s disposal heading into 2025 ($59.5 million). That figure is likely to jump approximately $25 million ahead of the opening of free agency on March 12, as the league-wide cap will increase between $22-$26 million before that date.
That sounds like good news when it comes to potentially bringing Darnold back, either on a long-term deal or on the franchise tag, but in most scenarios the opposite is actually true.
Vikings Will Struggle to Find Place for Sam Darnold on Roster
GettyMinnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell speaks to quarterback Sam Darnold before an NFL game.
Barnwell first laid out the problems with the Vikings franchise tagging Darnold and then trying to trade him.
The Vikings might choose to franchise tag Darnold, but it’s a risky proposition. While they have plenty of cap space, the $42.4 million franchise tag would hit their books this year, limiting their financial flexibility until the situation is resolved. If he chose to sign the tag, Minnesota would likely have to move forward with Darnold as its starter in 2025 and leave J.J. McCarthy on the bench, costing it another year of surplus value from the 2024 first-rounder’s rookie deal.
The Vikings could attempt to trade Darnold after tagging him, but if they don’t have an immediate deal on the table, they run the risk of signing a deal they don’t actually want to make and eating up a significant portion of their cap.
Going the long-term route on a new contract keeping Darnold in Minnesota to build on his 4,300-yard, 35-TD performance from 2024 would rob the Vikings of the theoretical advantage to Super Bowl contention that McCarthy provides, and the only sensible decision in that scenario would be to trade the second-year signal-caller for draft capital.
Beyond that, Darnold’s annual price point is going to be higher moving forward due to the cap spike. Barnwell used the recent deal Daniel Jones signed with the New York Giants as a comparison point.
“In 2025, with the cap projected to come in around $280 million, the $40 million average salary for Jones would project to just under $50 million for Darnold,” Barnwell wrote. “I’d be surprised if his deal got quite that high, but two guaranteed years with $90 million locked in at signing would make sense.”
Sam Darnold Will Struggle to Find Better Situation Than Vikings in Free Agency
GettyQuarterback Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.
Barnwell predicted $46 million annually for Darnold if he hits free agency untethered, or if the Vikings choose to extend him before that happens. That is due to the simple economic concept of supply and demand, wherein there are more teams in need of a quality quarterback now than there are quality QBs available in the 2025 draft and free agency classes combined.
The rub for Darnold, as Barnwell pointed out, is that there are few situations around the league that can offer him anywhere near the advantages he had in Minnesota last season — the elite threat of star wide receiver Justin Jefferson and the impeccable play calling of head coach Kevin O’Connell, just to name a couple.
Unfortunately for both sides, there don’t appear many mutually beneficial avenues — if any — that can keep them together. That means the Vikings will probably have to take a big risk, and potentially a big step back, with McCarthy next season; while Darnold will go elsewhere and get his money, though probably at a decreased level of success, and perhaps happiness as well.
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