In the just-completed 2024-2025 MLB offseason, the biggest soap opera, at least for the first five weeks after the World Series, was the free agent pursuit of generational slugger Juan Soto. The drama concluded when Soto signed with the New York Mets for a record-smashing $765 million over 13 years. Now, a new season brings a whole new soap opera.
This time, the main character is Toronto Blue Jays four-time All-Star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who may not be a generational slugger on the quite the level of Soto, but is nonetheless a superstar who in 2021 put up a monster year, leading the American League in home runs with 48, as well as on-base-percentage (.401) and slugging percentage (.601).
While Guerrero may not net as much as Soto pulled in as a free agent, there is no doubt that, if he reaches free agency, “Vladdy” will instantly become the focus of the 2025-2026 offseason, the one who due to his astronomical price tag must be signed before any other significant free agents are offered new deals.
The only obstacle to Guerrero Jr.’s free agency would be if the Blue Jays manage to reach an agreement with him on a contract extension. Guerrero Jr. set a cutoff date of February 18 for extension negotiations with the Blue Jays to be concluded, and that date was reached with no agreement. But the Jays reportedly made Guerrero Jr. a new offer anyway, just last week.
The reported value of that offer â approximately $500 million.
Will Toronto Trade Guerrero Jr. Away?
The other option is for Toronto to trade their 26-year-old superstar sometime during the 2025 season. According to former MLB executive Jim Bowden, now a writer for The Athletic, the favored teams to make a deal for Guerrero are the teams most fans and MLB experts would expect: the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and New York Mets.
Down the list, a more surprising team that should â based on its revenues and overall valuation â be in the competition for high-priced, big-name players, but recently has not been. That team is the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs are the subject of a new trade proposal by sportswriter Bailey Bassett of ClutchPoints. In Bassett’s proposal, the Cubs would acquire Guerrero Jr. from the Blue Jays by giving up a high-impact package of prospects, including two of the organization’s top five and three of the Cubs’ top 10 players of the future.
Those prospects include infielder Matt Shaw, the Cubs’ first-round pick in 2023, 13th overall, and No. 1 ranked prospect in the organization. The Cubs would also have to give up No. 3 prospect, Owen Cassie, an outfielder who was the San Diego Padres top pick in 2020 but came to the Cubs in the Yu Darvish trade later in 2020.
The Cubs would also surrender their No. 7 prospect Jefferson Rojas, another infielder, and No. 16, righty pitcher Jack Neely, according to the ClutchPoints trade scenario.
Tight-Fisted Cubs Appear Unlikely to Make Deal
But why would the Cubs be willing to trade away so much of their future for a partial year of Guerrero Jr.? The only way would be if the team plans to sign him to an extension which, as the Blue Jays example shows, would likely come in above $500 million. That seems unlikely given that the North Siders are one of the most tight-fisted organizations in baseball, in relation to their ability to spend.
The Cubs 2025 payroll ranks 12th in MLB, at $192.6 million, while the club’s revenues â based on 2023 figures, the most recent available â were third-highest, at $506 million. The club’s total market value, according to the financial site Forbes.com, racks fourth â behind only the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox, at $4.6 billion.
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