LAS VEGAS — Hitting a video-poker royal flush is easier than nailing a three-team college football underdog moneyline parlay, what living in this zany zoo for 22 years has taught me.
My scoreboard: Royal Flush 1, Three-team Moneyline Underdog Parlay 0.
Then last weekend arrived.
On Oct. 20, BYU opened in Vegas as a two-point favorite at Central Florida, but heavy UCF money flipped that by lunchtime Tuesday. On Oct. 25, it hit UCF -3, settling at 2.5.
That made BYU’s moneyline about +125, or bet $100 to win $125, for its 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff in Orlando on Oct. 26.
Stupendous for me as two models I concoct every Sunday for the upcoming week’s games showed the Cougars winning outright, by five and six points, respectively.
So that cash influx made UCF a Wrong Team Favored (WTF). Every Sunday, in my hours of digesting and manipulating college football numbers, unearthing WTFs is paramount.
Auburn was a 2.5-point underdog at Kentucky, too, and my models showed the Tigers winning, by three and 10 points, respectively. West Virginia, a 2.5-point dog at Arizona, was projected to win by two and nine points.
That represented a trio of underdog candidates, but such a parlay trifecta of slim dogs only paid 10-to-1 odds.
Moneyline parlay ace Kelly Stewart favors including at least one bigger underdog in the mix to springboard those odds into something worth trumpeting.
Enter Duke.
So close
The Blue Devils had been 4-0 at home this season, defeating North Carolina and Florida State. Moreover, Duke was 11-2 at home the last two seasons. And new Devils boss Manny Diaz was 1-0 as a home dog at Miami.
Duke, getting 11 points, was +330 on the moneyline to win outright at home against SMU.
I tied BYU’s moneyline to West Virginia’s (7 p.m. start) and Duke’s (8 p.m.) with a 20-1 three-team payoff. The Cougars (37-24) and Mountaineers (31-26) did their jobs.
At Green Valley Ranch, one of my two home sportsbooks, I watched the day’s games on four huge screens that were divided to show about two dozen different tilts, SMU-Duke on a small one up top.
My eyes could wander, with occasional Duke check-ins. I never inform anyone with whom I sit about my action for many reasons, but an early portent came from Minneapolis Mel.
Out of nowhere, he said, “How about SMU?!” when the Mustangs took a 21-7 lead. Of all the games on all those screens? An ominous portent.
Duke answered less than three minutes later, but Todd Pelino missed the PAT kick; another omen. Duke scored early in the fourth quarter and converted a two-point pass to tie it at 21.
The Devils didn’t do anything after intercepting a pass at midfield, then were given a reprieve as a defender returned an SMU fumble deep into Ponies territory late in regulation. Duke bled the clock and positioned for a kick.
However, a Mustangs lineman blocked Pelino’s short game-winning field-goal attempt.
SMU scored in overtime on its second possession, but Duke answered with a 25-yard touchdown pass on its first play. And Diaz bypassed Pelino, opting for a two-point play and victory, but the pass sailed wide.
A defender was draped over the receiver. No call. No 20-1 payoff.
Good bounces required
I contacted Stewart for insights and commiseration. Twelve years ago, she was serving cocktails at a high-end Bellagio night club when she hit an 85-1 three-team underdog. At $100, her $8,600 payoff drew attention.
She dubbed her plays the “Hottie Threesome,” parlaying that publicity into a sports-betting career. Today, the 40-year-old Stewart is a WagerTalk co-owner and one of the industry’s more popular personalities.
Last Sunday, I caught her at Kansas City International Airport, returning home to Florida from watching her beloved Kansas State beat Kansas.
She said she always bets her underdog teams individually with the points while “sprinkling” a bit on their individual moneylines. “The parlay,” she said, “is like a cherry on top.”
Along with that 85-1 shot, she also hit an 80-1 beauty. In total, she has hit seven in college football and two in college hoops.
“Career earnings have been pretty good, but I haven’t hit one in almost two years,” she said. “So close, but no cigar on the big one. I can remember the teams that have cost me almost as much as I can remember the winners. Ha!”
I inquire about the key to hitting them, the art.
“The true art is luck,” Stewart said. “We’re asking touchdown dogs, or higher, to win outright. We need bounces to go our way, teams not to beat themselves. Cal versus Miami, for example. And that’s the truth!”
On Oct. 5, host Cal, a 10.5-point underdog and +310 on the moneyline, had a 25-point halftime lead on Miami but lost 39-38.
I also tease my games, anathema to professionals. But I’ll never consider myself a pro. This is entertainment, and my No. 1 goal is to exchange that ticket for cash.
I equate seven-point teasers to extra insurance, and the 82.5% return on such two-teamers still represents a niftier, and quicker, return than most other legal investment avenues.
A few bucks were made that Saturday, but no profit. And the three-team underdog parlay remains as elusive as ever.