LAS VEGAS — By winning their first eight games, the Dodgers were on the precipice of cashing an impressive Westgate SuperBook proposition before the first Monday in April.
Would they reel off a 10-game winning streak this season? The number was 9.5, with a -110 price (risk $110 to win $100) on both over and under.
The loaded Dodgers then lost 3-2 in Philadelphia on April 4.
Long Island handicapper Tom Barton, who co-hosts the late-night weekend HeatWave sports-betting radio show in Vegas, has been challenged to locate a potential 10-game streak in the Dodgers’ schedule.
At the end of the month, they play two at Wrigley Field before playing host to Pittsburgh and Miami, then they go to Atlanta and Miami.
“That’s a pocket,” Barton said, “in which they could do it.”
In the middle of May, LA welcomes the A’s and Angels to Dodger Stadium, but series against Arizona sandwich those games.
Barton, 47, pegged Diamondbacks starters Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes as likely the game’s best 1-2 pitching punch.
In mid-August, the Cardinals and Blue Jays visit, then the Dodgers play the Angels at Anaheim Stadium.
Barton said, “Maybe there?”
He concluded that the six-game stretch at home, against the Pirates and Marlins, would be the foundation of their lone remaining avenue to a 10-game winning streak.
“But that’s six games,” Barton said. “They still must win five more. I lean toward no. I’d wait till May 1, get through April and click then.”
AND 117?
That led to the SuperBook’s other major Dodgers prop, would they win 117 games to break Seattle’s MLB record, of 116-46 in 2001? On Opening Day, yes was 12-to-1, no -3000.
After that initial defeat to the Phillies, that grandiose dream might have been dealt a blow as the Dodgers lost four of their next five games. On Wednesday morning, the Padres (9-3) topped the NL West, followed by the Giants (8-3) and Dodgers (9-4).
Barton cringed that pitcher Blake Nelson and first baseman Freddie Freeman already occupy the Injured List. Plus, he pegged no LA starter as being able to log 150 innings.
And he winced about Shohei Ohtani, rebounding from not only his second Tommy John surgery on his throwing (right) elbow but also an operation on his left shoulder.
“Will they win more than 110 games? Now we’re having a conversation,” Barton said. “That’s going to be a hard one to say no to. Still, I wouldn’t bet over. Bring me down to 105 or 106, I’ll bet that over. I’m not sure they get to 110.
“Everything has to align perfectly for 117 or 118. I just always will be on the side that not everything in life will line up perfectly.”
Southern California ’capper Tommy Lorenzo, 52, runs the superb Cover the Weekend podcast and watches many Dodgers games. He also plays 80% of his prop action under.
“I think they’ll clear their win total, of 103 to 104,” Lorenzo said. “At 117, that’s a tall order. If they’re ahead by 12 games in September, do they push it? They’re so apt to shut guys down for a bit.
“At those odds you could take a stab, but I’m not.”
Opposing lefty starters, he believes, will perplex the Dodgers. In those first three losses, southpaws Christopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo and MacKenzie Gore fared well against LA.
“When they face a tough lefty, that’s when they get shaky,” Lorenzo said.
HOME COOKIN’
I recently tapped Barton and Lorenzo for 2025 future plays and action on individual awards. I yapped with them again Sunday to learn what they’ve learned, so far, over nearly two weeks of games.
Out of the gate, Barton hammered the Yankees at home against the Brewers, who were slammed in 4-2, 20-9 and 12-3 defeats. The Bronx Bombers at home remain a strong part of his portfolio.
“Doing cartwheels,” Barton said. “Yankees and over, their team-total over. Just loaded, with home-run props on Bubba Wells, Anthony Volpe and Aaron Judge. I probably won’t have another day like that till July. Amazing.”
THE ATM
He also revealed how he, almost blindly, has bet against pitcher Patrick Corbin for four years. Corbin had gone 31-63 over that stretch for Washington, and the Nationals were 45-81 in games started by the southpaw.
Texas inked him for $1.1 million. On Tuesday at Wrigley Field, he yielded three runs over four innings in his first start for the Rangers. The Cubs won, 10-6.
“A pure bank account,” Barton said. “An ATM machine. Every single start, just bet against him.”
FISH TO FLOP
To finish with the fewest MLB triumphs, I followed Lorenzo and went with Miami, at +525 at the SuperBook.
Chicago native Sam Panayotovich, purveyor of the popular Chicken Dinner podcast and co-host of BetMGM’s Bet Sweats radio show, nabbed Colorado (+325 SuperBook).
The Rockies and White Sox were both 2-8 after Tuesday’s tilts, the Marlins 5-6.
At 2-8, Atlanta also occupied baseball’s basement. However, Barton and Lorenzo figure the Braves’ fortunes will turn with the return of injured players.
That included former league MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider, who owns a Cy Young Award. Moreover, Barton is bullish on Spencer Schwellenbach, who in 14 innings over two starts didn’t allow an earned run.
“I still think the Marlins will end up being the worst team,” Lorenzo said. “They’re [.500-ish] right now. Good for them, but they’re not going to sustain that.”
SACKS OF RUNS
Over the winter, Barton and I pondered how the minor-league fields in Tampa and Sacramento would play in Rays and A’s games, respectively.
He knew more about the California capital, so he bet over 8.5 runs in the A’s home opener. The Cubs won, 18-3. It stayed 8.5 as Chicago won, 7-4 and 10-2.
Monday, that total remained 8.5. I wagered over, courtesy of Barton. San Diego won 5-4. I bet Tuesday’s over, still 8.5. The A’s won, 10-4. Wednesday, books moved the total to 10.
“Free money,” Barton said. “It takes sportsbooks a long time to adjust.”
TACTICS
Lorenzo prizes certain Sabermetric figures like swinging-strikeout rate and velocity, for pitchers. He charts recent ascents or descents, of pitchers and hitters. Requisite wagers follow.
It takes time, he said, to gather pertinent evidence and develop a feel.
“Betting always is hard,” Lorenzo said. “But it’s a little easier to anticipate, typically, when you might see a No. 1 vs. a No. 4 or 5. That will always be -250 or -260, so is it worth including in a parlay?”
He recommended FanGraphs and baseball-reference.com as stellar resources.
Examine figures such as a No. 1 pitcher, who threw 102 pitches his last time out and search his history to gauge how he has fared after tossing triple-digit pitches in the past.
“If his next starts haven’t been that strong, that’s when you want to attack,” Lorenzo said. “The bottom line is you have to know what the value is for yourself, to generate a system that works for you.” V