The Cubs ushered in the first day of spring training on Sunday, as the first team to hold official pitchers and catchers workouts.
Alex Bregman was still unsigned.
“I obviously can’t comment on any individual players,” president of baseball operations Hoyer said when asked what it would take to get talks to the finish line.
The Cubs have been often named in the persistent swirl of reports and rumors about Bregman’s free agency. He’s the best hitter still available. And none of the seven players who made starts at third base for the Cubs last year remain on the roster. As it stands, top prospect Matt Shaw looks poised to claim the third base spot out of camp, in his rookie season.
Hoyer said in his news conference Sunday that it was “unclear” whether the Cubs would make any more significant major-league moves before leaving for the Tokyo Series in mid-March.
“We always look for opportunity,” Hoyer said. “But right now, we’re going to have a meeting this afternoon, and we’re going to focus on the guys that are in camp. And that’s the plan.”
Does Hoyer feel the team has the payroll flexibility to make a significant addition and continue to supplement the roster?
“Talking about exact budget numbers is always a dangerous thing,” Hoyer said. “But I would just say, we’ve been really focused this offseason on trying to try to optimize as much as we can within our budget to make sure that we are a really competitive team; I think we are.”
Well, that wasn’t a yes.
Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts said during Cubs Convention last month that he expected the team’s payroll to be right around the competitive balance tax threshold ($241 million), “más or menos, with a little bit of reserve for mid-season.” It wasn’t clear exactly how much over or under that figure he was willing to spend.
As of Sunday, Roster Resource and Cot’s Contracts estimated the Cubs’ payroll to be around $191 million – roughly $209 million for CBT purposes. But publicly available estimates tend to skew low.
If the Cubs could sign Bregman to a shorter deal, which would require a higher average annual value, it would improve their team on both offense and defense while giving Shaw runway to transition to the majors. Bregman, 30, is among the top 10 position players in fWAR over the last seven seasons (33.6), sandwiched between Trea Turner (34.0) and Mike Trout (31.7) at No. 8. Multiple reports suggest Bregman would prefer a deal for six years or more.
In general, the Cubs have been hesitant to give out longer deals. Even shortstop Dansby Swanson, at the center of the plan for the “next great Cubs team,” signed a seven-year deal going into his age-29 season. The other three shortstops at the top of that 2022-23 free agent class agreed to deals of 11 years or more – although Carlos Correa ultimately settled for a six-year contract with the Twins after concerns about his physical exams sunk agreements with the Giants and Mets.
It’s possible, however, that Bregman could end up in a situation similar to that of fellow super-agent Scott Boras clients Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell last season. In the absence of long-term deals at the price points they hoped for, all three signed shorter contracts with opt-outs, giving them the option to return to the market.
Without Bregman, the Cubs are still projected to win the National League Central. But adding him would give the team more leeway in case of underperformance – or overperformance from division rivals. And it would better their chances in the postseason.
“It’s going to be a hard-fought division; it’s going to be a hard-fought league,” Hoyer said. “That’s been one of our main focuses as we’ve thought about the offseason — both going into the offseason and throughout — is that wins are going to be at a premium in the National League, in particular, this year. We’re in a competitive window, and we’ve gotten better each year. I think we’re at a place where we have a chance to be really good — and trying to really maximize our resources, within our budget, to make sure that we could do that.”