Best Bet
Steelers at Colts
Time: Noon.
Line: Steelers by 2.
Total: 40.
Records (overall/ATS): Steelers 3-0/3-0; Colts 1-2/2-1.
The Bears were unable to take advantage of the Colts’ leaky run defense in a 21-16 loss last week — gaining just 63 yards on 28 carries against a defense that had allowed 213 rushing yards to the Texans and 261 (!) to the Packers in the first two weeks of the season.
Now it’s the Steelers’ turn.
If you’re looking at Justin Fields’ 3-0 record and career-best efficiency through three games and wondering what the Steelers do that the Bears don’t, this week will provide an interesting comparison.
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith seem to have a pretty good handle on how to protect a quarterback who is new to their system and operating in a developing offense.
They run the ball.
The Steelers have taken the load off Fields with a running game that isn’t dominant or overwhelming, but they stay dedicated to it. After victories against the Falcons (41 carries, 137 yards), Broncos (36-141) and Chargers (31-114), the Steelers are 28th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.6) but second in rushing attempts (108).
The Steelers, in fact, have run the ball on 57.1% of their offensive snaps this season (108 of 189). That’s the second-highest percentage in the NFL behind the Saints, who have run on 60.7% of their offensive snaps (105 of 173) and are second in the NFL in scoring through three weeks under first-year coordinator Klint Kubiak. Funny how that works.
The Bears, for what it’s worth, have run on 35.5% of their offensive snaps (72 of 203) — the fourth-lowest percentage in the NFL through three games.
Fields has been a factor in the Steelers’ run game, but not like he was with the Bears. He has 28 carries for 90 yards (a career-low 3.2 average) with a five-yard touchdown against the Chargers last week.
But the Steelers are leaning on an actual running back to carry the load. Najee Harris leads the Steelers with 55 carries for 209 yards (3.8 average). Fields was the Bears’ leading rusher in his two full seasons as a starter — 1,143 yards in 2022 (ahead of David Montgomery’s 801); and 657 yards last year (ahead of Khalil Herbert’s 611).
Even after they stymied the Bears, the Colts are still 31st in rushing defense (179.0 yards per game) and 15th in rushing average (4.4). The Steelers seem well-suited to take advantage of their opponent’s weakness.
Pick: Steelers 18, Colts 13.
Top Plays
BENGALS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bengals by 4.
Total: 47.
Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 0-3/1-2;
Panthers 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: Andy Dalton turned back the clock at 37 — 319 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 123.6 rating in a 36-22 road upset of the Raiders. Panthers scored 13 points in two games with Bryce Young. But the Bengals (0-3) are in desperation mode and Joe Burrow is picking up steam — 324 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 127.5 in a loss to the Commanders.
Pick: Bengals 34, Panthers 24.
EAGLES at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Eagles by 2.
Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 2-1/2-1; Buccaneers 2-1/2-1.
Outlook: DC Vic Fangio is getting his footing with the Eagles, shutting down Derek Carr and the Saints red-hot offense, which was held to 12 points and 219 yards after averaging 45.1 points and 405.5 yards in wins over the Panthers and Cowboys. If he can harness the immense but combustible talent of DT Jalen Carter, who was dominant vs. the Saints . . .
Pick: Eagles 23, Bucs 13.
COMMANDERS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 3½.
Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 2-1/2-1; Cardinals 1-2/2-1.
Outlook: Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels broke out vs. the Bengals on ‘‘MNF’’ — 21 of 23, 254 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 141.7 rating in a 38-33 win. Dan Quinn had the Commanders headed straight west for this one — usually the smart move. OC Kliff Kingsbury should be motivated vs. team that fired him in ’22.
Pick: Commanders 20, Cardinals 17.
The rest of the games
RAMS at BEARS
Time: Noon., Fox 32.
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 41.
Records (overall/ATS): Rams 1-2/1-2; Bears 1-2/1-1-1.
Outlook: The Bears are still finding their way with rookie QB Caleb Williams, a struggling offensive line and a weak run game, but the schedule is doing its best to help. The Rams’ defense is 31st in points, 32nd in yards and 30th in rushing defense through three games.
Pick: Bears 23, Rams 17.
BRONCOS at JETS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jets by 7½. Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 1-2/2-1; Jets 2-1/2-1.
Outlook: Aaron Rodgers seems to be rounding into vintage form after a standout performance vs. the Patriots (281 yards,
2 TDs, 0 INTs, 118.1 rating). Broncos surprised the Buccaneers last week, winning 26-7.
Pick: Jets 24, Broncos 17.
VIKINGS at PACKERS
Time: Noon., CBS 2.
Line: Packers by 2½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 3-0/3-0; Packers 2-1/2-1.
Outlook: Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is working wonders with former No. 3 overall pick Sam Darnold (117.3 rating, 8 TDs, 2 INTs). But Matt LaFleur is working wonders with Malik Willis (122.7, 2 TDs, 0 INTs), who will make his third start if Jordan Love can’t go.
Pick: Packers 20, Vikings 16.
SAINTS at FALCONS
Time: Noon.
Line: Falcons by 2½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 2-1/2-1; Falcons 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: Saints’ offense was stymied by the Eagles in a 15-12 home loss, but it’s unlikely Derek Carr has forgotten how to play football. Falcons were one play from beating the Chiefs last week, but that’s what the Chiefs do.
Pick: Saints 30, Falcons 23.
JAGUARS at TEXANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Texans by 6½. Total: 45.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 0-3/1-2; Texans 2-1/0-2-1.
Outlook: Texans are 2-1 but struggling to build off of last season’s surprising season, with victories over the Colts (29-27) and Bears (19-13) before hitting the wall vs. the Vikings in a 34-7 loss at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Pick: Jaguars 21, Texans 17.
PATRIOTS at 49ERS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 40½.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 1-2/1-1-1; 49ers 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: With Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey out, Kyle Shanahan’s offense produced another star in Jauan Jennings. They won’t take their foot off the gas here.
Pick: 49ers 32, Patriots 17.
CHIEFS at CHARGERS
Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Chiefs by 7½. Total: 40.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 3-0/2-1; Chargers 2-1/2-1.
Outlook: Chiefs are three plays from 0-3, but that’s why they’re the Chiefs. As a favorite of 7+, they’re 42-5 SU/22-24-1 with Mahomes.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24.
BROWNS at RAIDERS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Raiders by 2. Total: 37.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 1-2/1-2; Raiders 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: Browns are coming off a bad loss to the winless Giants. But the Raiders are coming off a bad loss to the winless Panthers.
Pick: Browns 21, Raiders 18.
BILLS at RAVENS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Ravens by 2½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 3-0/2-1; Ravens 1-2/1-2.
Outlook: The Ravens need it more, but the Bills and Josh Allen (7 TDs, 0 INTs, 133.7 rating) are the hottest team in the league.
Pick: Bills 24, Ravens 20.
TITANS at DOLPHINS
Time: 6:30 p.m., Monday, ESPN,
Line: Dolphins by 1. Total: 36½.
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 0-3/0-3; Dolphins 1-2/0-3.
Outlook: This game should be postponed until both these platoons are better rested.
Pick: Dolphins 6, Titans 3.
SEAHAWKS at LIONS
Time: 7:15 p.m., Monday, ABC 7.
Line: Lions by 3½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 3-0/1-1-1; Lions 2-1/2-1.
Outlook: Seahawks are off to a hot start under Mike Macdonald, but they’re stepping up in class here after beating the Broncos
(1-2), Patriots (1-2) and Dolphins (1-2).
Pick: Lions 26, Seahawks 17.