Best bet
BENGALS at STEELERS
Time: 7 p.m. Saturday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: Bengals by 1½.
Total: 48.
Records (overall/ATS): Bengals 8-8/10-6; Steelers 10-6/10-6.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are long shots to make the playoffs, needing a road victory over the Steelers and unlikely losses by the Dolphins (at the Jets) and the Broncos (to the coasting Chiefs at home). But at least they’ll be able to take care of their own business without having to keep an eye on the scoreboard.
While the Bengals face the Steelers at 7 p.m. Saturday, the Dolphins-Jets and Chiefs-Broncos don’t kick off until 3:25 p.m. Sunday. So the Bengals won’t be distracted from doing their part.
And that’s what the Bengals and Burrow have done the last four weeks in a mad dash for the playoffs, beating the Cowboys (27-20), Titans (37-27), Browns (24-6) and Broncos (30-24 in overtime) to give themselves a shot.
More than likely, Burrow & Co. will be kicking themselves for not only their 0-3 start but their slow response to it, going 4-5 in their next nine games to head into the home stretch at 4-8.
The Bengals aren’t quite as built to win in the postseason as they were in 2021 and 2022, when they lost in the Super Bowl, then lost in the AFC Championship Game the next season. Their defense spanning those seasons ranked 17th and sixth in points allowed. This defense is 29th.
But if the Bengals can get into the playoffs, they’ll be a threat to anyone they face. Burrow is at the top of his game with a 112.2 passer rating in his last eight games (69.4 completion percentage, 331-yard average, 27 touchdowns, five interceptions). When coach Zac Taylor said, “I would not trade Joe Burrow for any player in the universe,” after Burrow threw for 412 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions despite getting sacked seven times in the win over the Broncos, it was hard to argue with him.
Burrow, in fact, is the only active quarterback who has beaten Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a playoff game. The Bills’ Josh Allen is 0-3. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is 0-1.
As imperfect as they are, the Bengals are closer than some people think. They lost to the Chiefs 25-24 at Arrowhead on a field goal as time expired. They lost to the Ravens 41-38 in overtime at home and 35-34 on the road when a two-point conversion failed with 38 seconds left in regulation.
They still have a shot to get in but first have to take care of business against the Steelers — not an easy chore. Burrow’s laser-like focus always gives them a chance.
Pick: Bengals 31, Steelers 24.
Top plays
BILLS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bills by 2½.
Total: 38.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 13-3/10-6; Patriots 3-13/6-9-1.
Outlook: Josh Allen might start, but only to extend his streak of 114 consecutive starts. Former Bears QB Mitch Trubisky will get most if not all of the snaps and surely has hopes of convincing someone to give him another chance. Trubisky’s only attempt in mop-up duty last week was a screen pass to WR Tyrell Shavers for a 69-yard touchdown.
Pick: Bills 20, Patriots 16.
GIANTS at EAGLES
Time: Noon.
Line: Eagles by 2½.
Total: 37½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 3-13/4-11-1; Eagles 13-3/10-6.
Outlook: The Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Coach Nick Sirianni will rest most of his starters, including QB Jalen Hurts, who was out last week with a concussion, and RB Saquon Barkley. Backup QB Kenny Pickett (ribs) is banged up, but third-stringer Tanner McKee threw two TD passes in a 41-7 rout of the Cowboys.
Pick: Eagles 22, Giants 13.
VIKINGS at LIONS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Lions by 2½.
Total: 56.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 14-2/11-4-1; Lions 14-2/11-5.
Outlook: The Vikings have won nine straight (5-3-1 ATS), and their offense is a good matchup vs. a banged-up (but getting healthier) Lions defense. But this is a championship game with a lot at stake — the winner is the No. 1 seed; the loser is No. 5 — and the Lions’ playoff experience last season will make a difference.
Pick: Lions 38, Vikes 30.
Other picks
BEARS at PACKERS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Packers by 10. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bears 4-12/7-7-2; Packers 11-5/9-7.
Outlook: Bears have a chance to knock the Packers into the No. 7 seed and a playoff game vs. the Eagles instead of the Rams. But nothing else has motivated them recently.
Pick: Packers 23, Bears 10.
BROWNS at RAVENS
Time: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC 7, ESPN.
Line: Ravens by 18. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 3-13/4-12; Ravens 11-5/9-6-1.
Outlook: The Ravens can clinch the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed with a victory, and they don’t have to win by 18 to do it.
Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 10.
JAGUARS at COLTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Colts by 5. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 4-12/8-7-1; Colts 7-9/9-7.
Outlook: Some teams fold after being eliminated, but the Colts seem like they’ll rally after losing another late-season game.
Pick: Colts 24, Jaguars 17.
COMMANDERS at COWBOYS
Time: Noon.
Line: Commanders by 4½. Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders
11-5/10-5-1; Cowboys 7-9/6-9-1.
Outlook: Commanders can avoid a rematch with the Eagles (who would have the revenge factor) and face the Rams — with a win.
Pick: Commanders 30, Cowboys 24.
TEXANS at TITANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Texans by 1. Total: 38½.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 9-7/6-8-2; Titans 3-13/2-14.
Outlook: Coming off back-to-back losses to the Chiefs and Ravens, the Texans are motivated to go into the playoffs with a win.
Pick: Texans 19, Titans 16.
PANTHERS at FALCONS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Falcons by 8. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 4-12/7-9; Falcons 8-8/6-9-1.
Outlook: Falcons need a win and a Bucs loss at home to the Saints to get in. They could fade late if the Bucs’ game goes sour.
Pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 17.
SAINTS at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Buccaneers by 14. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 5-11/6-10; Buccaneers 9-7/10-6.
Outlook: The Buccaneers took care of business handily last week vs. the Panthers and figure to do the same here at home.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Saints 20.
49ERS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 4½. Total: 43.
Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 6-10/10-6; Cardinals 7-9/10-6.
Outlook: Joshua Dobbs will start for injured Brock Purdy in a meaningless finale, but the 49ers are a proud team that won’t lay down.
Pick: 49ers 24, Cardinals 20.
SEAHAWKS at RAMS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Seahawks by 6½. Total: 38½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 9-7/6-9-1; Rams 10-6/8-8.
Outlook: The Rams have a chance to clinch the No. 3 seed, but Sean McVay indicated he will rest his starters at some point.
Pick: Rams 20, Seahawks 17.
DOLPHINS at JETS
Time: 3:25 p.m., Fox 32.
Line: Dolphins by 1. Total: 38½.
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 8-8/7-9; Jets 4-12/5-11.
Outlook: Dolphins need a victory and a Chiefs win over the Broncos to make the playoffs, but Tua Tagovailoa has a bum hip.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 21.
CHARGERS at RAIDERS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 5. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 10-6/11-5; Raiders 4-12/7-8-1.
Outlook: Jim Harbaugh will go all out for the No. 5 seed — but they’ll be locked into No. 6 if the Steelers beat the Bengals on Saturday.
Pick: Chargers 20, Raiders 13.
CHIEFS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Broncos by 10½. Total: 40.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 15-1/8-8; Broncos 9-7/11-5.
Outlook: Chiefs will rest Patrick Mahomes and other starters. Carson Wentz is another intriguing backup QB playing in Week 18.
Pick: Broncos 23, Chiefs 17.