The West Coast sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament. Two rounds later, only Arizona remains.
It’s the first time in 13 years the region has a single survivor in the Sweet 16 and reflects the limited pool of realistic participants that has evolved over the decades.
The western half of the country hasn’t won the national championship since the Wildcats were the final team standing in 1997, and it has filled a paltry five of the 60 Final Four slots over the past 15 years.
To what does the West Coast owe this dishonor?
The dearth of quality options is a significant factor. Over the past 10 years, it has sent 28 teams into the Sweet 16, but just four programs, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon and Gonzaga account for 22 of the spots (78.5 percent).
This month, the headwinds were stiff:
— The Bruins were a middle-tier seed (No. 7) and beaten decisively in the second round by Tennessee.
— The Zags lost a few too many games during the regular season and, as an eighth seed, were matched against one of the tournament favorites, Houston. They pushed the Cougars to the brink before losing by five.
— The other two, Oregon and Arizona, were matched against each other as the result of realignment placing them in different conferences. One of them was exiting the tournament before the Sweet 16 regardless.
— The only other school from the region to produce multiple Sweet 16 appearances over the past decade, San Diego State, had an inexperienced roster and was bounced in the First Four.
So in that respect, the dearth of regional representation is easily explained.
The broader issue — just four schools carrying the banner for the West Coast across the decade — is more complex.
Washington, Cal and Stanford have struggled in recent years. USC and Arizona State are high on potential but low on productivity. (At least, that’s the public perception.) And UNLV hasn’t come close to recreating its success from the Jerry Tarkanian years.
It’s a suboptimal state of affairs in a given year that was made much worse by concurrent downturns this season in Spokane and Westwood.
To the Sweet 16 power rankings …
1. Duke (East). The Blue Devils were 3/1 to win the national championship before the tournament and are now 2/1, which reflects their dominant showing against Baylor in the second round and the sturdiness of Cooper Flagg’s previously injured ankle. Next up: Arizona
2. Houston (Midwest). There is no shame in being pushed to the brink by Gonzaga, and we have zero reservations about slotting the Cougars in the No. 2 position. But they probably should devote a few minutes in practice to breaking the half-court trap. Next up: Purdue
3. Florida (West). Walter Clayton was magnificent in the final minutes against UConn as the Gators rallied to eliminate the two-time defending national champs. The first-team All-American can save whatever shotmaking magic he has left for the Final Four. Florida has the easiest path of the No. 1 seeds and won’t need any Clayton heroics this week. Next up: Maryland
4. Auburn (South). There was credible reason to believe the Tigers were the most vulnerable of the top seeds after they stumbled down the stretch, but the second-round victory over Creighton was indisputably impressive. That said, a rugged road remains to survive what might be the toughest regional. Next up: Michigan
5. Michigan State (South). Were our rankings based solely on personnel — on the number of future NBA draft picks — the Spartans would be much lower. But their cohesion, grit and commitment to defense are elite. As, of course, is their coaching. Next up: Mississippi
6. Kentucky (Midwest). The Wildcats are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019 thanks to the leadership of first-year coach Mark Pope. The man he replaced, John Calipari, has guided his team, Arkansas, to the second weekend, as well. And the coach who replaced Pope at Brigham Young, Kevin Young, is also in the Sweet 16. Talk about a win-win-win for all three schools involved in last spring’s biggest chain reaction. Next up: Tennessee
7. Alabama (East). A school formerly known for its football has reached the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive year under Nate Oats. But a return trip to the Final Four seems unlikely for the offensively inclined, defensively challenged Crimson Tide given the daunting presence of the No. 1 seed in the East. Next up: Brigham Young
8. Brigham Young (East). The Cougars took advantage of playing at altitude (in Denver) against VCU and Wisconsin and more than looked the part of an Elite Eight candidate, scoring 171 points in two games. Now comes an opponent that has the playmakers to keep pace. Next up: Alabama
9. Texas Tech (West). The second-round victory over Drake was impressive for a team missing its third-leading scorer, guard Chance McMillian, due to an upper-body injury. Will the break between rounds offer him enough time to heal? The Red Raiders don’t need McMillian to beat Arkansas, but his presence in the Elite Eight is vital. Next up: Arkansas
10. Tennessee (Midwest). The Volunteers have played 36 games over four months only to face an intensely familiar foe, Kentucky, in the Sweet 16. They lost both games to the Wildcats during the regular season (by five points at home and by 11 in Lexington). Our view: It’s not that hard to beat a team three times. Here comes the end of the road for the Vols. Next up: Kentucky
11. Michigan (South). From eight wins last season to the Sweet 16 this spring, the Wolverines produced quite the turnaround. Along the way, they have authored a statistical anomaly: 11 consecutive victories in games decided by four points or fewer. Can the streak reach an even dozen? Next up: Auburn
12. Mississippi (South). We did not expect the Rebels to outlast Iowa State, much less batter the Cyclones by double digits — not after they nearly gagged away a gigantic lead against North Carolina in the first round. At this point, nothing would surprise us up to, and including, a Final Four berth. Next up: Michigan State
13. Arizona (East). If you’re wondering how star guard Caleb Love has played in nine career games against Duke — he spent three seasons at North Carolina, after all — here are the relevant numbers: 37.6 percent from the field and 15.9 points per game, including a 3-of-13 performance earlier this season (in defeat). If Love hits those averages on Thursday, the Wildcats are in trouble. They need him to score in the mid-20s, at minimum. Next up: Duke
14. Purdue (Midwest). Styles make fights in the NCAAs, and Purdue’s style is not suited (in any way, shape or form) for Houston’s relentless, discombobulating defense. But at least Year 1 of the post-Zach Edey era was a success for the Boilermakers. Next up: Houston
15. Maryland (West). Yes, Derik Queen traveled on the game-winning shot against Colorado State, but no official will blow the whistle in that situation in 10,000 years. And they shouldn’t. Let the magic play out. Next up: Florida
16. Arkansas (West). The Razorbacks were 8-10 in the SEC and frequently struggled to score. Yet here they are, back in the West regional for the second time in four years — and the only double-digit seed left in the tournament. Next up: Texas Tech
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