We have reached the pinnacle of the 2024 NFL season, with Super Bowl LIX only days away. The two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs battle a familiar foe in the big game: the Philadelphia Eagles.
Preview
For the second time in three years, the Super Bowl will feature the Chiefs and the Eagles. The two teams faced off in Super Bowl LVII, with Kansas City winning in a thriller, 38-35.
This year will have the ninth Super Bowl rematch in NFL history. The winner of the first matchup holds a 6-2 record in the sequel.
Sunday will also be the fourth Super Bowl in history that features a quarterback rematch. In all three prior instances, the previous winning quarterback made it two in a row. Terry Bradshaw went 2-0 against Roger Staubach, while Troy Aikman and Eli Manning went undefeated against Jim Kelly and Tom Brady, respectively.
Sticking with the rematch trend, this year’s big game will have a head coach rematch for the second consecutive year and for the fifth time ever. Last year, Andy Reid and the Chiefs defeated Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers for the second time in four years.
This year, Reid and Nick Sirianni go toe-to-toe for the second time. Similar to the quarterback rematch records, in the first four head coach rematches, the winner of the first matchup also won the second.
Road to the Super Bowl
Ever since hoisting the Lombardi a year ago, the Chiefs have been on a mission to make NFL history. Kansas City finished the regular season with a 15-2 record, clinching the top seed in the AFC playoffs and a first-round bye.
After defeating the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round and the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship, the Chiefs are one win away from unchartered territory. A win on Sunday would make Kansas City the first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
After starting the regular season 2-2, the Eagles won 12 of their last 13 games to secure second the seed in the NFC playoffs with a 14-3 record. Philadelphia took care of business in the Wild Card Round with a win over the Green Bay Packers. They followed it up by defeating the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round and the Washington Commanders in the NFC title game to advance to the Super Bowl.
As the Chiefs look to cement themselves as arguably the best dynasty ever with a third straight championship while the Eagles look to avenge their loss in Super Bowl LVII, let’s take a look at some of the key matchups on Sunday.
Chiefs’ Offensive Line vs Eagles’ Defensive Line
One of the defining matchups on Sunday will be in the trenches between the Chiefs’ offensive line and the Eagles’ defensive line. Philadelphia enters the big game with the No.1 defense in the league. A big reason for that is the talent up front.
Defensive tackle Jalen Carter has wreaked havoc this postseason. The former Georgia Bulldog has tallied an impressive 20 pressures to go along with a pair of sacks in the last three games.
Carter’s physicality, combined with his speed and explosiveness, make him a nightmare for any offensive line. Throughout this season, he has lined up on the right guard over 90 percent of snaps.
For Kansas City, this means that Trey Smith is likely to line up against Carter for the majority of the game. While it may sound like good news for the Chiefs, it still might spell some trouble.
With the impact that Carter has on the game, Kansas City could look to use center Creed Humphrey to double team him to limit the impact. However, that opens up one-on-one battles for left guard Mike Caliendo.
Since the Chiefs moved Joe Thuney to left tackle, Caliendo has taken over on the inside. With the attention that Carter attracts, he could be set up to go one-on-one against Milton Williams or Jordan Davis. The third-year pro has struggled at times, so this could give Philadelphia an advantage if Kansas City double-teams Carter.
As for the outside, the Eagles possess an extremely athletic pass-rush duo with Nolan Smith and Josh Sweat.
Smith has showcased his speed this postseason as he leads the field with four sacks. As for Sweat, his length has been a difference maker opposite of Smith.
Fortunately for the Chiefs, Thuney and right tackle Jawaan Taylor have performed well against speed rushers this season. This includes T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa.
The key for Kansas City will be helping Caliendo on the left side. Trey Smith has been one of the top guards this season, so I would use Humphrey to aid Caliendo.
Patrick Mahomes vs Eagles Defense
One way for the Chiefs to potentially counter the Philadelphia pass rush is for Patrick Mahomes and the offense to establish a quick passing attack and spread the ball around.
In the AFC Championship, Mahomes was masterful at spreading the ball across the field. Against the Bills, nine different Chiefs caught a pass.
Kansas City is set up to successfully spread the ball around. While Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy have flourished in recent weeks, Hollywood Brown, Deandre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Noah Gray, and others have also been impactful throughout the season.
Over his career, Mahomes has been at his best with quick throws. In 40 games where he releases the ball within 2.75 seconds, Mahomes averages 288 passing yards with 98 touchdowns.
Being able to get the ball to as many different receivers as possible will spread out the Eagles’ defense, setting them up for more chunk plays. Expect the Chiefs to stick with this recipe for success on Sunday.
Travis Kelce vs Oren Burks and the Eagles’ Secondary
One of Patrick Mahomes’ top targets on Sunday will be none other than tight end Travis Kelce. When it comes to the postseason, Kelce has etched himself as one of the best in league history.
The star tight end is three catches away from passing all-time great Jerry Rice for the most receptions in Super Bowl history. In four Super Bowl appearances, Kelce has 31 catches for 350 yards and two touchdowns.
Two years ago, against the Eagles, Kelce had a big day with six receptions for 81 yards and a score. Last year, he finished with nine catches for 93 yards.
On Sunday, Kelce will see a familiar face in Oren Burks. In last year’s Super Bowl, Burks surrendered six catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. Kelce had 92 of his 93 yards in the second half.
Like last year, Burks is replacing an injured player. A year ago, it was Dre Greenlaw. This time, it’s Nakobe Dean.
In the NFC title game, Commanders’ tight end Zach Ertz had a huge game, hauling in 11 catches for 104 yards against this Philadelphia defense.
Expect the Chiefs to go after Burks in coverage after his struggles in Super Bowl LVIII. Kansas City should target Kelce early and often to try to replicate the success Washington had.
Saquon Barkley vs Chiefs Rush Defense
The Chiefs’ toughest task will be limiting Saquon Barkley. The star running back led the league with over 2,000 rushing yards in the regular season.
He has somehow taken it up a notch in the playoffs. Barkley is averaging 6.7 yards per carry through the first three postseason games. The focus for the Kansas City defense will be limiting him on the ground.
The Chiefs’ defense finished the regular season without allowing a running back 90 yards rushing in a single game. The only exception is Lamar Jackson, who ran for 122 yards on opening night.
With a stout offensive line blocking for him, Barkley has big play ability every time he touches the ball. The physicality up front in the trenches will be critical in an attempt to stop him.
Kansas City will likely go all out in an attempt to limit Barkley’s impact on the ground, forcing Jalen Hurts to win the game with his arm. The question is, can they do it?
Prediction
As I said, going into the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs have found ways to win all season long. The offense, defense, and special teams have all found ways to win games. In a matchup that will take your absolute best and most complimentary football, I think the Chiefs have the advantage.
Kansas City’s offense has turned the ball over once since Week 12. The offense has the recipe to succeed with weapons all over the field and the ability to get rid of the ball quickly.
The Chiefs’ defense has been able to limit running backs all season long. Barkley is going to have some big plays, but he will not take over this game.
Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo will once again be at the top of their game and outcoach Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore. Kansas City is one win away from history and didn’t make it this far just to fall short.
Score: Chiefs 38, Eagles 27
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