The Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North last season and brought Aaron Rodgers back to defend it. Bleacher Report still ranks them behind a Cincinnati Bengals team that has not reached the postseason in three years.
Bleacher Report NFL analyst Brad Gagnon published his ranking of all 32 teams by realistic path to the 2026 playoffs on Friday, sorting the league into five tiers. Pittsburgh landed 19th, in the middle group Gagnon labeled “Living on the Bubble.”
That label carries more weight than the number. The bubble tier runs 11 teams deep, from No. 21 down to No. 11, and the Steelers sit near the bottom of it.
Gagnon gave Pittsburgh credit for its floor, writing that the franchise is always hovering in the mix and that Rodgers has enough talent around him to keep it there. His projection puts the Steelers somewhere between eight and 11 wins.
Steelers Playoff Path Ranking Rests On Aaron Rodgers’ Age
Then came the caveat that defines the entry. Gagnon wrote that Rodgers could “completely” fall off a cliff, and called that a genuine possibility in the quarterback’s age-43 season.
Rodgers turns 43 on Dec. 2, in the middle of the schedule.
He has also removed any ambiguity about what comes after. ESPN’s Brooke Pryor reported from Latrobe on Tuesday that Rodgers shut the door on 2027 completely, saying there is “zero debate” about this being his final season.
So Pittsburgh gets one year of a quarterback every projection model treats as a coin flip, with Drew Allar and Will Howard waiting behind him and neither having thrown a regular-season NFL pass.
Why The Steelers Rank Below The Bengals In The AFC North
The division context is where this stings.
Gagnon placed Baltimore sixth, a full tier above Pittsburgh in the group he called “Unless Murphy’s Law Hits.” Cincinnati checked in 18th. Cleveland fell to 28th, buried in the bottom tier.
That leaves the defending AFC North champion projected third in its own division, one spot behind a Bengals team Gagnon acknowledged has underachieved its way out of the playoffs three straight years. His reasoning there was Joe Burrow’s health rather than talent, which is a different kind of question than the one hanging over Pittsburgh.
It is also the second national projection this week to file the Steelers under skepticism. Fox Sports NFL reporter Ralph Vacchiano ranked them 24th in his training camp power rankings Tuesday and argued they should have rebuilt around a young quarterback instead.
The résumé says otherwise. Pittsburgh went 10-7, won the division and lost at home in the wild-card round to Houston. Mike Tomlin then walked away after 19 seasons, Mike McCarthy took over in January, and the front office added Michael Pittman Jr., Rico Dowdle, Jamel Dean and first-round tackle Max Iheanachor.
None of that moved the needle nationally, because none of it answers the quarterback question.
The Steelers open at home against Atlanta on Sept. 13. Eight to 11 wins is a wide enough range to cover a division title or a lost season, which is exactly what living on the bubble means.
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