One of the most recent trends in the world of wagering is prediction markets. In particular, the sports prediction market is driving the upward trajectory of corporations such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Prediction markets don’t just limit themselves to sports. Users can wager on just about any type of event. For instance, political races, movements in financial markets, and even crypto valuations are just some of the categories that individuals can place wagers on.
However, a recent report featured in casino.org looked at the trends in prediction markets for 2026. One of the most interesting revelations is that the sports prediction market is less about fans cheering for their favorite team and using a more analytical approach to determine their wagers.
The study found that 89.5% of users described their activity as strategic decision-making rather than rooting for a favorite team. In other words, there’s less of an emotional component and cheering for a specific team. The focus is more about getting the predictions right, hence turning a profit.
NFL Leading the Way in Sports Prediction Market
Another interesting trend is that the sports prediction market accounts for roughly 57% of the overall activity within the broader industry.
Of that 57% stake, the NFL gets the lion’s share with 51.4%. Other major North American sports include the NBA (30.2%), MLB (10.6%), NHL (4.9%), and MLS (3%).
It’s worth noting that the sports prediction market differs from the traditional sportsbook market as wagers don’t necessarily revolve around the outcomes of games or individual sporting events.
In fact, the sports prediction market doesn’t rely on the usual odds that sportsbooks provide. Prediction markets rely more on the trends of individuals. So, instead of setting odds based on an algorithm that determines who wins or loses, prediction markets show the trends stemming from user wagers.
Additional users can jump on the prevailing trends or go against the grain.
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Industry Becoming More Mainstream Thanks to Sports
Prediction markets started as an alternative for non-sporting events to find a wagering platform. Typically, prediction markets focus on the outcomes of political elections or cultural events, such as determining the top movie on a streaming platform for a given month.
But it has been the sports prediction market that’s made the overall industry phenomenon more commonplace, not just in the United States, but around the world.
The study in question reported that the overall prediction market cap hit $20 billion in January 2026. That’s an astonishing number rivaling those of major sportsbooks around the world.
That situation has led major players in the prediction market, such as Kalshi, to land a $22 billion valuation. That’s an astronomical figure for a company that doesn’t focus on a more traditional sector such as tech, finance, or even AI.
Ultimately, the sports prediction market will continue to gain momentum. It’s hard to envision it going away. If anything, this market could grow to a point where it may provide significant competition for traditional sportsbooks.
Even with stricter regulations coming down the pipeline, overall prediction markets should become a new type of speculative profit-generating enterprise.
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