Jeff Pagliocca’s early tenure as the Sky’s first general manager has been distinguished by an affinity for bold, bordering questionable moves.
Sunday evening, he made another, trading the Sky’s No. 3 overall pick in the upcoming draft to the Mystics in exchange for two-time All-Star Ariel Atkins. The trade will also include the Mystics receiving a 2027 first-round pick swap and the Sky’s second-round pick in 2027. This draft is expected to include USC star JuJu Watkins and Notre Dame guard Hannah Hidalgo, adding to the risk attached to the trade.
Pagliocca’s plans for the Sky do not include their rebuild dragging on for another three years. Acquiring Atkins, a WNBA champion, Olympic gold medalist and five-time All-Defensive player, indicates as much. But the move comes with questions, specifically, does Atkins make the Sky any more of a contender in 2025?
The answer is no.
The Sky are still at least another year removed from inching closer to the top of the WNBA’s standings, and that’s if Pagliocca is able to pull off a substantial haul in what is expected to be an unprecedented free-agency period in 2026. The addition of Atkins merely puts the Sky back in the playoff picture.
Atkins — who averaged 14.9 points shooting 43.7% from the field last year — will replace guard Chennedy Carter. The Sky’s starting backcourt will likely feature two-time WNBA champion Courtney Vandersloot, Atkins and a combination of guard Kia Nurse and Rebecca Allen on the wing.
Atkins is expected to be an unrestricted free agent next year, further contributing to the questionable return of this trade. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, Atkins will be eligible to be cored by the Sky in 2026. However, the league is expected to have a new CBA ratified before the new year, making it uncertain if the core tag will still be available.
Notre Dame guards Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron, as well as international prospect Domonique Malonga are all likely candidates for the No. 3 pick in the 2025 WNBA draft. None of those players will have a more immediate impact than Atkins. The Sky also own the rights to a first-round pick swap with the Sun in the 2026 draft. This pick will likely amount to a lottery pick after the Sun failed to re-sign a single free agent this year.
Pagliocca’s decision to deal the 2027 draft assets means the Sky have to win now. The WNBA draft lottery includes the league’s four non-playoff teams. The lottery order is based on those four teams’ cumulative records over the previous two seasons. This means if the Sky fail to make the playoffs in 2026, they risk giving up a chance at drafting Watkins.
The Sky narrowly missed the postseason in 2024 and got substantially stronger with the additions of Vandersloot, Nurse, Allen, and now Atkins, who will all aid in the development of young bigs Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese.
The long term success of Pagliocca’s decision will hinge upon his ability to attract top free agents in 2026, meaning next year will be the true indicator of whether or not his aggressiveness will be best characterized as bold or reckless