Justin Steele’s 2025 season did not start the way he would have liked. In his season debut for the Cubs, Steele allowed five runs over four innings against the Dodgers. The Cubs southpaw did not look like the same pitcher as last year when he had a sub 3.1 ERA.
But was this performance an anomaly or a sign of things to come for the pride of Lucedale Mississippi?
A look at the advanced Metrics
Many people remain skeptical of Justin Steele given his limited repertoire and low velocity. Steele does not fit the mold of the modern-day pitcher who sits in the high 90s and can touch triple digits. He is also one of the few pitches in Baseball who could get away with just a two-pitch mix. But he has proven there is more than one way to get it done in MLB.
One metric to help measure a pitcher like Steele is Fielding Independent Pitching. Abbreviated to FIP, this metric measures the pitcher’s level of dominance independent of the defensive performance. We all know defense can help dictate ERA, so one way to isolate the pitcher is to calculate their FIP relative to their ERA to see how much their defense matters.
Looking at Steele’s FIP numbers over the past three seasons you will see they align closely with his ERA. In 2022 his FIP of 3.2 was slightly more than his ERA of 3.18. In 2023 his 3.02 FIP was less than his 3.06 ERA. And in 2024 his 3.23 FIP was a bit higher than his 3.07 ERA. What these numbers tell you is that Steele is not being “bailed” out by the Cubs defense. He is dominated independent of the seven defenders behind him.
A great Baseball Savant page
His Baseball savant page is spectacular. His only blemish is his fastball velocity (16th percentile). But if you can get past the fact that he doesn’t throw hard, there is a lot more to love with Steele. For starters his xERA of 2.74 is 93rd percentile, His barrel rate of 4.2% grades as 94th percentile, and his hard hit rate of 33.2 is 88th percentile.
Steele does not dominate hitters with elite velocity, rather he has great break and horizontal movement on his pitches. He pairs this with elite location which induces a lot of weak contact. Ignoring what happened to Steele this morning, it is rare to see hitters tee off on his pitches.
Compare that to teammate Daniel Palencia whose fastball sits at about 98 MPH. This ranks Palenicia in the 98th percentile of all pitchers. Palencia’s fastball may be much faster, but it’s also much easier to hit. His 45% hard-hit rate is awful and a clear indicator that velocity does not equal dominance.
Justin Steele will continue to be a polarizing pitcher for Baseball fans. In a world that envies velocity above all else, Steele is an outcast. But the stats and the advanced metrics don’t lie. Steele has proven to be a great pitcher in this league. Don’t let one bad outing against the defending world champions deter you from recognizing his ability to pitch at a high level.
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