Barely two weeks ago, University of Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was unlikely to last beyond the Las Vegas Raiders and the #6 overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft—assuming he lasted even that long. In the wake of the scouting combine in Indianapolis, Sanders’ status as a top pick is in question, as is just how far he may fall if his stock slides.
NFL “silly season” certainly moves quickly.
In an article examining which prospects “cashed in” and “missed an opportunity” at the combine, The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner included Sanders in the latter category. Sanders’ decision not to participate in any combine events came a month after neither practicing nor playing in the Shrine Bowl despite having committed. Citing both, along with the fact that “for all its attention, the program went 13-12 over that span and beat no one of real significance,” Baumgardner questions just where this might land Sanders come Draft Day at Lambeau Field.
He refutes Sanders’ own claims that “his tape says all it needs to” acknowledges the former Buffalo is “not a slam dunk” to land in the top 10, and states that “it’d be a little surprising at this point if anyone traded up for him.”
Baumgardner is not alone.
How Far Could Shedeur Sanders Slide?
It is worth noting that Baumgardner says Sanders—who will take part in the Big 12’s joint pro days March 18-21—“is a first-round talent in this draft,” but that “it’s pretty difficult to say he’d have gone before any of last year’s first-round QBs. What’s that level of prospect worth in the 2025 class?”
Standing only 6’1”, tipping the scales at under 200 pounds, and with a less than spectacular arm, purely from a “tools” perspective, Sanders is not an elite prospect. Additionally, there are questions about his pocket management and the timing with which he delivers the ball— as raised by Danny Kelly, who has Sanders at #7 in his March 5 mock draft at The Ringer (and #17 on his big board), down from #3 in late-January.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, in his February 11 big board, questioned Sanders’ ceiling and noted that his ranking (#25) “seems to be somewhere in the middle” of “wide-ranging” opinions of Sanders throughout the league—including a ranking of #47 on the Pro Football Focus big board. Brugler cemented that assessment in his own March 4 mock draft, sliding Sanders all the way down to the Pittsburgh Steelers at #21 overall.
Of course, there will always be QB-needy NFL teams unwilling to allow even a flawed first-round prospect slip through their grasp. However, in light of the softening opinions on Sanders, it’s fair to wonder whether he might actually fall to the Seattle Seahawks—and whether he makes sense as a developmental prospect and eventual replacement for Geno Smith if he does.
Should the Seahawks Swoop If Sanders Slips?
In 2024, for the first time in four years, the Seahawks recorded double-digit regular season wins. Their 10-7 record equalled the Los Angeles Rams’ NFC West-winning mark, and was the best leaguewide among non-playoff teams. Per PFF, despite bottom-ten rankings in both run and pass-blocking, the Seahawks ranked in the top ten in passing, rushing, and receiving, and 12th overall as an offense. On defense, they finished “in the bottom of the top half” in pass rushing (#14), coverage (#13 and overall defense (#12), with a top-ten (#8) mark for tackling and a somewhat subpar (#19) showing against the run.
As things currently stand, Seattle will enter draft weekend with picks in each of the first three rounds—#’s 18, 50, and 82 overall—but nothing more until the sixth round. This doesn’t leave a lot of room for optionality. For a team that fared as the Seahawks did in 2024, in a division that’s still up for grabs and a conference that’s got a clear top but is otherwise open, a push toward contention is enticing.
If this is the route that John Schneider chooses, a premium pass rusher (like combine “winner” Jihaad Cambell, as mocked by Kelly and Brugler), interior offensive linem (like Alabama’s Tyler Booker, per Baumgardner, ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Jr. and The Athletic’s Michael Shawn-Dugar), and increasingly, wide receiver are viable paths.
But what if the draft process presents the Seahawks with an opportunity to retool not so much for next year but the next decade, and at the most important position in the sport?
GettyGeno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle’s Future Under Center
Geno Smith has been a resounding success as a Seahawk. Smith arrived in Seattle as an afterthought, on a one-year, $1.2 million deal to back up Russell Wilson. After making a single appearance and attempting five passes, he returned on a similar deal, this time making four appearances (three starts), completed over 68% of his passes for 702 yards and five touchdowns, with just one interception.
In April 2022, weeks after Wilson’s trade to the Denver Broncos, Smith signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract (with up to $3.5 million in incentives). After competing for the job with Drew Lock (who arrived in the Wilson trade), he was named the starting quarterback. He went on to have the best season of his career, starting all 17 games, completing an NFL-best 69.8% of his passes for 4,282 yards and 30 TDs (vs. 11 interceptions), and rushed for 366 yards, earning his first Pro Bowl selection, finishing ninth in MVP voting, and winning Comeback Player of the Year.
That offseason, Smith signed a three-year, $75 million contract, with $40 million guaranteed. He hasn’t since touched the heights of 2022, but he earned another Pro Bowl nod in 2023, and has completed 67.8% (70.4% in 2024) of his passes for 7,944 yards, with 41 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, plus 427 rushing yards, in 32 games.
He’s poised, accurate, mobile, with a quick release and the ability to make plays under pressure. He’s tough, persevering, and a great teammate.
He will also turn 35 on October 10, still playing behind an offensive line that’s allowed him to be sacked 127 times in three seasons, with—for now—a dwindling set of offensive weapons. And the Seahawks are likely more than a couple of tweaks away from challenging the Philadelphia Eagles or the class of the AFC.
If Seattle decides to move on from Smith after the 2025 season—a year after restructuring his deal to create cap space and with one season remaining—releasing or trading him before June 1 (per Spotrac) would free up $31 million in cap space, while incurring a $13.5 million dead cap hit. Parting ways post-June 1 would allow the team to split the dead cap hit across two years.
At some point, it will be prudent to look to the future. Whether that means Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss or banking on a presumed top-ten prospect like Shedeur Sanders, the Seahawks are at a point where they’re at least got to think about it.
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