Against the backdrops of conference realignment and postseason expansion, the NCAA Tournament selection committee will unveil the 68-team field Sunday afternoon.
It marks the first bracket reveal since the Pac-12 imploded and the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC took their bloated forms, and it might be the last reveal before those same conferences execute their plans to expand March Madness to 76 teams.
Controversy should be limited Sunday, with clear choices for the No. 1 seeds and a limited number of bubble teams with legitimate claims on the final at-large berths.
What should you expect to see on the CBS selection show (3 p.m. Pacific)?
Here’s an overview:
No. 1 seeds
On this matter, clarity is abundant. Auburn, Duke and Houston seemingly have effectively locked up three of the top seeds, with Florida expected to receive the fourth.
Each team has a well-rounded body of work, with a plethora of quality wins and no bad losses. (Cooper Flagg’s ankle injury should not impact Duke’s status given that the Blue Devils beat North Carolina without him.)
The only other candidate for a No. 1 seed is Alabama, which could replace Florida.
SEC dominance
The 16-school conference is expected to send at least 13 teams to the NCAAs, breaking the record set by the Big East, which received 11 bids in 2011.
And the SEC might get a 14th bid if the committee deems Texas worthy.
Is all the love from the committee justified?
Well, the SEC posted a 30-4 record against the ACC and a 14-2 mark against the Big 12.
Realignment impact
Because there are so many guidelines for placing the 68 teams in the brackets, the selection committee has far less flexibility with early-round matchups than the public believes.
Combine the desire to avoid rematches from the regular season with the mega conferences created by realignment and there’s even less maneuverability:
— Teams that play three times in the regular season cannot meet before the Elite Eight.
— Teams that played twice during the season can’t square off before the Sweet 16.
— Teams that played once cannot meet until the second round.
Because of the SEC’s massive contingent, the committee will be challenged. Chair Bubba Cunningham indicated this week that staying true to the seeds is more important than avoiding rematches.
“We really try to keep everybody on the same seed line,” he said during a media teleconference. “We don’t want to move them to a different seed line because that really does impact the tournament. But it’ll be a little bit trickier this year.”
Brands on the bubble
When he’s not steering the committee, Cunningham is North Carolina’s athletic director. His school could be one of the most hotly-debated bubble teams.
The Tar Heels are a ticket-selling and ratings-generating machine, but their resume doesn’t support an at-large bid. They are just 1-12 in Quadrant I games.
According to committee rules, Cunningham must recuse himself from any discussions about the Tar Heels. But if they sneak in, look for critics to connect the gift bid to Cunningham’s role as chair.
Other power conference schools on the bubble include Texas and Indiana.
The Mountain West has multiple bubble teams, including San Diego State and the loser of the conference championship game (Saturday afternoon) between Colorado State and Boise State.
Western reps
The demise of the Pac-12 adds a layer of complication to assessing the regional breakdown, but we can take an educated guess.
Only three Pac-12 legacy schools will make the field: Arizona, Oregon and UCLA. None of the other nine are even on the bubble.
That’s hardly a flattering number, but it compares favorably with recent seasons. The Pac-12 placed just three teams in the tournament in 2022 and four in both 2023 and 2024. It simply wasn’t a very good basketball conference in the years prior to collapse.
Expanding our scope, the Mountain and Pacific time zones are tracking to produce 13 participants:
— Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s from the West Coast Conference.
— Utah State, New Mexico and (probably) San Diego State from the Mountain West, plus either Boise State or Colorado State.
— The champions of the Big Sky, Big West and Western Athletic conferences.
— The three aforementioned Pac-12 legacy schools, along with Brigham Young from the Big 12. All four should be seeded in the No. 4-to-6 range.
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