Baseball Prospectus (BP), the nation’s preeminent baseball think tank posted its 2025 predicted standings on Monday. They forecast the 2025 Boston Red Sox to finish in last place in the American League East, with a 12% chance to make the playoffs. The Red Sox have a projected 0.4% chance to win the 2025 World Series, according to the data.
BP’s “PECOTA” prediction model utilizes advanced mathematics, player data, and historical trends to project a team’s success. This early prediction falls well below the team’s stated intentions.
At the team’s season-ending press conference in October, President Sam Kennedy stated, âOur priority is 90 to 95 wins, winning the American League East, and securing the division title for multiple years.â
As of February 3, BP predicts the AL East to finish as follows:
1. New York: 89.7-72.3
2. Baltimore: 89.2-72.8
3. Toronto: 84.5-77.5
4. Tampa Bay: 81.9-80.1
5. Boston: 77.6-84.4
This week’s outlook is just another in a succession of five straight years of disappointments endured by Red Sox fans, and comes on the heels of ownership’s adamant intention to make the club contenders for the division crown.
In November, 2024, Kennedy again maintained that the Red Sox would add free agent talent, stating âLook, we have to add, and thatâs what weâre trying to do.”
Despite their promises, the Red Sox did nothing to upgrade their lineup or defense in the 2024 offseason.
The team’s 2025 payroll is currently estimated at $171MM, $13MM less than the cost of the 2024 team that finished 81-81. They are also approximately $30MM below the first MLB luxury tax threshold of $241MM.
The Red Sox have finished in last place in three of the previous five seasons and haven’t appeared in the playoffs since 2021.
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