LAS VEGAS — Savvy Southern California handicapper Tommy Lorenzo sees some rays of hope for the woeful White Sox, courtesy of their own Andrew Vaughn and the Marlins.
Last year, the rudderless Sox were a 41-121 mess. Such horrible baseball hadn’t been witnessed since 1962, when the expansion Mets went 40-120.
For 2025, Lorenzo envisions nobody playing worse than the Marlins.
“A Triple-A lineup,” he said. “The only pitcher they have is Sandy Alcántara, and they might deal him like the White Sox dealt Dylan Cease last year.”
Alcántara, 29, has two years and about $34 million left on his contract. He underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2023 and missed all of last season. He hit 99 mph in a spring game this week.
“If it looks like he can throw, they’ll move him. He’s outta there,” Lorenzo said. “They’re on the ground floor of a rebuild, so they’ll try to get the most value for him.”
Lorenzo has bet under the Marlins’ projected victory total and on them recording the fewest MLB triumphs. Sunday at the Westgate SuperBook, I bought the former under 62.5, at -110, the latter at +500, or risk $100 to win $500.
(Odds and prices subject to change.)
My annual February phone chat with Lorenzo, to diagnose the upcoming MLB campaign, required an hour. A year ago, he provided several nuggets, the sweetest being Tarik Skubal becoming Cy Young.
“I think that’s the best value,” Lorenzo said of Miami. “I don’t think the White Sox will have the worst record. And the Colorado Rockies at least have hitters in that lineup, whereas the Marlins do not.”
When the Sox won, Vaughn excelled. In 39 victories, he hit .320 and slugged .549. Lorenzo liked the way Vaughn tinkered with his swing in the second half.
“He changed his launch angle and had underlying power numbers,” Lorenzo said. “He was unlucky to hit only 19 home runs. His hard-contact numbers trended up, too, in the second half.”
Lorenzo, who typically bets under player props, reversed that trend with the 26-year-old Vaughn. He wagered over 19.5 homers on the first baseman, which I nabbed at the SuperBook.
“The Sox have brand new front-office personnel, and a lot of [sorry] players got flushed out,” Lorenzo said. “They have a young core that will play hard. I think you’ll see improvement. Vaughn should be in the mid-20s, home run-wise.”
Logan’s run?
A year ago, at 30-to-1 odds, Lorenzo promoted Tigers starting pitcher Skubal to win the American League Cy Young award.
The 6-3, 240-pound southpaw went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA to win that hardware. In his final three months, Skubal only had one loss.
“That was really cool,” Lorenzo said. “More people than I had realized jumped on board that one. It was fun, and a sweat; I thought he would be traded to the National League, but they ended up dealing [Jack] Flaherty.
“It all worked out.”
Lorenzo isn’t picking Skubal, at +300, to defend that crown. This is about value, and he is on Mariners starter Logan Gilbert, who had been 16-1. At the SuperBook, I got 12-1.
“I analyze their second halves of the previous year, for insight into what changes, or modifications, a pitcher has made,” Lorenzo said. “They get figured out, hitters lay off certain pitches; many pitchers regress.
“Gilbert’s underlying stats jumped pretty well, like his swinging-strikeout rate and velocity. I think he’s being overlooked.”
Longshot Alonso
A lifelong Dodgers fan, Lorenzo winces when he explains that, at +175, it’s impossible to take a position on Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP.
Lorenzo’s priority, again, is value, and he’s enthusiastic about Mets slugger Pete Alonso, at 50-1. I found 35-1 on Alonso at a William Hill kiosk Monday, passed, and grabbed 60-1 at a Circa Sports outlet 10 miles away.
“I think his RBI numbers will explode, now that he has Juan Soto in that lineup,” Lorenzo said. “Again, if you’re looking for alternatives to Ohtani and are looking to swing for the fences, pardon the pun, it’s Pete Alonso.
“At those odds, the outlay is minimal for a nice return. This guy could be a 40-home run, 100-RBI guy.”
With Soto in the Yankees’ lineup last season, Judge, in a unanimous vote, won his second AL MVP.
A’s and Rays
Lorenzo also likes the Rays under and Athletics over, which I grabbed at the SuperBook at 81 and 72, respectively.
With extensive hurricane damage to their usual home, the Rays will play this season at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida, the Yankees’ spring-training park. The A’s will play three seasons in Sacramento, California, before moving here.
“I’m down on the Rays,” Lorenzo said. “I think there’s a lot to overcome, with their stadium. That [Yankees’] park will do their pitchers no favors. Rain disruptions will tax their starters and bullpen. Too many red flags.”
In early December, The A’s obtained pitcher Luis Severino, who went 33-14 as a Yankee in 2017 and ’18, and 11-7 with the Mets a year ago.
Plus, Lorenzo is bullish on 30-year-old slugger Brent Rooker, who socked 30 dingers two seasons ago and 39 last year.
At the SuperBook, his projected home-run figure was 32.5, up from 30.5; I still wagered over because of Lorenzo’s nod.
Lorenzo also likes that the A’s play hard for manager Mark Kotsay, who, as a 9-year-old, no-hit Lorenzo’s Little League team, full of 12-year-olds, in Santa Fe Springs, California.
Handicappers Greg Matson, in Northern California, and Tom Barton, on Long Island, believe totals on A’s and Rays home games will be higher than normal.
Still, they advise betting over on both out of the gate, until books set those numbers too high or they simply don’t pay off.
Appetizers
Terry Francona is the new Reds manager, and in an uncertain NL Central Lorenzo likes them. I got +450 on the Reds winning the division and +250 on them making the playoffs.
“I think the Reds have the pitching and the hitting to do it,” Lorenzo said. “That division, it’s kind of mysterious what the Cubs and Brewers will do. The Cardinals are down and the Pirates are not there. There’s opportunity for the Reds.”
Moreover, Lorenzo likes Arizona, just not to overtake the free-spending Dodgers atop the NL West. Lorenzo pegs the Diamondbacks as better than the Mets, Phillies and Braves, so -125 to make the playoffs is reasonable.
And watch Kyle Tucker, en route to a 45-homer season before fracturing a shin on a foul ball in ’24, soar for the Cubs. I got 17-1 on him to win NL MVP and invested in some flyers, should the Cubs zap the Dodgers in the playoffs.
My World Series exacta quartet, from Circa Sports, is Cubs over Yankees (105-1 odds), Yanks over Cubs (100-1), Cubs over Red Sox (285-1) and Red Sox over Cubs (350-1).
Should one of those hit, martinis on me at Gibsons.