It’s not that the Minnesota Vikings don’t want to bring Sam Darnold back, or that the QB wouldn’t like to return, as both sides have been open in regards to how they feel about the other — but the extenuating circumstances will complicate any attempt at a reunion.
Jeremy Fowler of ESPN authored a deep dive into the situation on Tuesday, January 21, coming to the conclusion that while normal circumstances might dictate a contract extension for a 27-year-old quarterback who just threw for 4,300 yards and 35 TDs in his best NFL season by a mile, Minnesota has multiple reasons to look the other way.
The two chief reasons among them are J.J. McCarthy, who is playing on a relatively inexpensive rookie contract, and all of the money the Vikings can spend to build a roster around him if they don’t break the bank on Darnold.
“All it takes is one suitor to drive Darnold’s market to the point where it’s cost prohibitive for Minnesota to retain him. And the numbers favor Darnold — at least five teams selecting in the top 10 of the NFL draft need a quarterback during a year when the supply doesn’t meet the demand. Darnold is the clear-cut No. 1 quarterback in free agency,” Fowler wrote. “Enter [the] Las Vegas [Raiders], which endured arguably the league’s worst quarterback situation in 2024. … Most execs polled believe Darnold belongs in the Geno Smith/Baker Mayfield class of contracts, somewhere in the range of three years and $100 million.”
Sam Darnold Likely Hits Jackpot if He Reaches Free Agency
GettyQuarterback Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) recently predicted Darnold’s market value at a considerably higher price point than did the executives who spoke with Fowler, projecting a three-year deal valued at $123.75 million ($41.25 million per season) with $70 million guaranteed.
“The debate surrounding Darnold in the 2025 offseason will likely focus on whether he can be more than just a bridge quarterback,” PFF wrote. “While his raw stats look impressive … his performance in key areas is more mixed, with 31 big-time throws balanced by 21 turnover-worthy plays.”
Spotrac went even further, projecting Darnold will ink a four-year, $160 million contract somewhere this offseason. Those figures have reached that level due to Minnesota’s 14-3 season, Darnold’s elite arm talent and the blueprint that Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has provided for potential future employers of the quarterback regarding how to get the best out of him.
Along with that, a salary of $33-$41 million annually would render Darnold’s pay somewhere between roughly 50-67 percent of the highest QB contract in the league currently, which belongs to Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys. As such, if Darnold is only the 15th-best quarterback in the NFL next season, a team is still getting somewhere between correct financial value and a bargain by inking him at a price point in that range.
Vikings Have Options to Replace Sam Darnold
GettyQuarterback Daniel Jones of the Minnesota Vikings.
The problem for Minnesota is that the organization will be taking a big swing on McCarthy for the second time in two years.
The first cut came when the Vikings drafted him No. 10 overall in 2024. Now, the organization will be betting on him to both stay healthy and develop rather quickly in the mold of peers like Jayden Daniels, who will start for the Washington Commanders in the NFC championship game on Sunday, and Bo Nix who led the Denver Broncos to the playoffs during his rookie campaign.
Of course, Minnesota can also try something similar with Daniel Jones to the $10 million prove-it deal the team agreed to with Darnold, keeping Jones around as a backup/safety net. If Jones gets a better offer elsewhere, the Vikings could look to other veterans to either back up McCarthy or potentially compete with him for the starting job next season on a value contract.
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